On November 30, the very active and extremely destructive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially came to a close. The season featured a total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of approximately 162 units. A majority of the season’s damage and death toll came from Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton. Six hurricanes made landfall in the Continental United States in 2024, four of which made landfall in Florida.

Prior to the season, forecasters almost unanimously anticipated a hyperactive hurricane season, with some forecasts indicating the season would be one of the most active on record. Although the season was not quite as active as many of the most bullish forecasts predicted due to a few lulls in activity, the season did officially meet NOAA’s criteria for a hyperactive season.

The season officially began on June 1, 2024, though the first storm did not form until June 19 (the latest first named storm in the basin since 2014), when Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the Bay of Campeche. Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico, and caused moderate damage in Mexico and Texas. In late June, Hurricane Beryl formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, becoming the first Category 4 hurricane on record during the month of June near the Windward Islands. Beryl then went on to become the Atlantic’s earliest Category 5 hurricane on record on July 2, surpassing the record previously held by Hurricane Emily in 2005. Beryl then went on to make landfall in the northern Yucatan peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane and near Matagorda, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane. Beryl caused significant damage in the Windward Islands and Texas. Tropical Storm Chris also formed on June 30 over the Bay of Campeche, and made landfall in Veracruz, Mexico as a weak tropical storm.

Following a lull in activity with no tropical cyclones forming during the month of July, Debby formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in early August, and made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. Debby was the first of four hurricanes to make landfall in Florida during the season. In mid-August, Hurricane Ernesto formed, peaking as a Category 2 hurricane and making landfall in Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. Following Ernesto, the Atlantic saw an unexpected, nearly 3-week lull in activity, with no tropical cyclones active between August 21 and September 8 – a window that is typically among the most active periods of the season.

Activity resumed in September, in which six named storms formed. Hurricane Francine formed over the western Gulf of Mexico in early September, making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane and causing moderate damage. Tropical Storm Gordon formed over the eastern tropical Atlantic in mid-September, and did not affect land. Following another lull, the season rapidly ramped up in the last third of September.

On September 24, Tropical Storm Helene formed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Helene became a hurricane the next day, and reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph on September 26. Helene made landfall at peak intensity in Florida’s Big Bend region, the same region struck by Hurricane Debby in early August. Although Helene rapidly weakened while moving quickly northeastward, the cyclone caused catastrophic flooding over the Appalachian region. According to current estimates, Helene is the third-costliest hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record (over $120 billion in damages), and the deadliest hurricane to affect the continental United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (at least 234 fatalities have been attributed to Helene). As these regions are still recovering, these damage and fatality totals are still uncertain, and it remains a distinct possibility Helene could end up as the costliest Atlantic hurricane on record when all assessments are complete.

Three more named storms formed in late September: Isaac, Joyce, and Kirk. Issac was a harmless hurricane of non-tropical origin that attained Category 2 status at a fairly high latitude. Joyce was an unremarkable moderate tropical storm over the central tropical Atlantic that did not affect land. Kirk, the last storm to form in September, developed into a powerful Cabo Verde-type hurricane, attaining Category 4 status over the central Atlantic basin.

October was a very active month in the Atlantic, featuring the formation of four named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane (excluding Kirk, which spent most of its lifetime in October). Leslie formed over the far eastern tropical Atlantic and reached hurricane intensity on two separate occasions, peaking as a Category 2 hurricane. Leslie did not affect land while a tropical cyclone. The most intense storm of the season, Hurricane Milton, formed over the Bay of Campeche on October 5 from the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Eleven-E. Milton explosively intensifed into a Category 5 hurricane on October 7, reaching a peak intensity of 180 mph with a minimum central pressure of 897 mb (the fifth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record by pressure). Milton was the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005, and the first sub-900 mb Atlantic hurricane since Wilma. Milton then accelerated northeastward and made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida as a Category 3 hurricane. Milton caused severe damage in Florida, with a preliminary damage estimate of $85 billion.

The second half of October featured two more storms. Tropical Storm Nadine was a short-lived moderate tropical storm that made landfall in Belize. Hurricane Oscar, which was a tiny hurricane that took an unusual southwestward track, made landfall in eastern Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane and caused moderate damage.

The month of November featured a record-tying three named storms: Patty, Rafael, and Sara. Patty formed as a subtropical storm over the far eastern Atlantic near the Azores, and briefly transitioned into a tropical storm shortly before becoming a remnant low. Rafael became an uncommon November major hurricane on November 6, reaching Category 3 intensity twice in both the northwestern Caribbean and over the central Gulf of Mexico. The last storm of the season, Sara, formed over the central Caribbean Sea and moved slowly near the coast of Honduras and Belize.

I hope that everyone affected by the storms this season are doing well and will get the assistance they need. Fortunately, the next six months should provide a much-needed break of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. I would like to wish all Cyclonic Fury readers a happy holiday season and new year. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, and I plan to release my annual preliminary forecast in early spring.

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Hazel’s development is traced to a tropical wave that likely exited the west coast of Africa in late September 1954. On October 5, the wave organized into Tropical Storm Hazel, located just east of the Windward Islands. Hazel quickly intensified after formation while moving very slowly westward, becoming a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the southern Windward Islands. Taking a very similar track to Hurricane Matthew 62 years later, Hazel continued to move slowly westward for the next few days while maintaining its intensity. Hazel began to intensify at a faster rate on October 9, strengthening into a Category 3 major hurricane at 18:00 UTC later that day. On October 10, the major hurricane took a turn to the north while remaining steady in intensity. Hazel then made landfall along the southwestern tip of Haiti, weakening slightly as it brushed the coast of the island country. It is likely that Hazel’s interaction with the rough terrain of Hispaniola caused the hurricane’s inner core to be disrupted and wind field to expand significantly, as we commonly see with hurricanes. After making a second landfall in the northwestern tip of Haiti, Hazel took a turn to the northwest while remaining a Category 2 hurricane.

Hazel then passed through the southeastern Bahamas and began to accelerate northwestward. While normally in mid-October the sea surface temperatures immediately off the coast of the Carolinas are too cool to support a strong hurricane, Hazel was able to intensify to its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane and maintain this intensity through landfall. This was likely due to a jet interaction and Hazel’s interaction with a cold front, which resulted in Hazel’s central pressure falling to 938 mb (27.69 mb). Hazel’s maximum sustained winds at landfall just north of Myrtle Beach early on October 15 were estimated to be 115 knots (130 mph), a low-end Category 4 hurricane. While tropical cyclones often weaken quickly after moving inland, Hazel transitioned to a very powerful post-tropical cyclone near Louisburg, North Carolina with winds near 90 mph later that day, as it turned due north. Hazel’s fast northward movement and baroclinic forcing resulted in a much slower weakening rate than usual, and the powerful post-tropical cyclone maintained hurricane force winds as far north as central Pennsylvania. Hazel then began to slow down and weaken as it moved into Ontario, Canada, dissipating early on October 18th.

I had the pleasure of speaking to Gladys Melvin, 90, a resident of Clarkton, North Carolina who survived Hazel. Melvin, who had never experienced a hurricane before, moved from the United Kingdom to North Carolina the previous year.

“It was a terrible experience,” said Melvin. “Melvin, who was in a mobile home at the time, said: “the ceiling started to blow off. “It was real scary.” Melvin’s husband was at work in South Carolina at the time.

Melvin noted that the impacts of Hazel were not well forecast in the area. “It had not been predicted at all.” She stayed in the mobile home, without power or air conditioning by herself. Local roads were inaccessible due to downed trees. The impacts of the hurricane were so severe that Melvin considered returning to the UK. “I was ready to leave then,” said Melvin.

The impacts of Hazel were felt throughout Haiti, as well as the entire east coast, including Canada. Hazel’s effects resulted in approximately 400-1000 fatalities in Haiti. Perhaps the most severe impacts along the United States east coast occurred in Oak Island, North Carolina, which felt the brunt of the eastern eyewall. According to CBS WFMY News 2, Hazel’s 17-foot storm surge destroyed 352 of the 357 structures on the island. Hazel’s death toll in the United States was 95, 19 of which were in North Carolina. Hazel also caused severe damage in Canada, specifically the Toronto area. Hazel, which was still producing winds near hurricane-force as a tropical cyclone, caused an estimated 85 fatalities and a damage total of an estimated 25-100 Million Canadian Dollars (1954).

Hazel was only the second-ever Atlantic hurricane to have its name retired. In 1953, forecasters chose a list of 23 female names, including Hazel. The exact same list of names was used again in 1954, and after Hazel’s severe impacts, the name was retired from the naming list and never used again. The current naming list with rotating male and female names was not used until 1979.

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As of 12:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, the eye of Hurricane Milton was centered near 26.0°N 84.2°W, and was moving northeastward at approximately 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 125 knots (145 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 931 mb. Milton’s satellite appearance has degraded significantly in the last several hours as southwesterly shear has been rapidly increasing. The degradation in satellite appearance should not be interpreted as Milton’s threat decreasing, as Milton is growing in size and is expected to produce storm surge of up to 15 inches south of the Tampa area. Additional weakening is expected due to continued strong shear, and Milton is expected to be a powerful Category 3 major hurricane at landfall south of Tampa Bay very early tomorrow morning. After moving across the Florida peninsula, Milton is expected to weaken rapidly and lose tropical characteristics by Friday morning northeast of the Bahamas.

Milton is expected to produce isolated rainfall amounts of 12 inches along the center of the track, with most of the Florida Peninsula expected to receive significant rainfall. The Florida Panhandle and the southern tip of Florida are not expected to have significant rainfall, though these areas are still expected to have higher than normal storm surge. Impacts with Milton will occur well inland, with hurricane warnings in effect for most of the inland area, and the east coast of Florida is also expected to receive well above normal storm surge from Milton.

Milton is expected to produce the following storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center:

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

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As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Helene was centered near 29.9°N 83.9°W, and was moving north-northeastward at approximately 24 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 120 knots (140 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 938 mb. The eye of Helene should make landfall in the next hour or two. Helene is a very large hurricane, with impacts extending far away from the eyewall. Helene is expected to turn to the northwest tomorrow, and rapidly become a post-tropical cyclone by tomorrow afternoon over eastern Tennessee. Helene is expected to cause a major inland flooding event over the Appalachian Mountains region, with localized rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches possible in some areas.

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As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Helene was centered near 22.5°N 86.6°W, and was moving northward at approximately 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 978 mb. However, recent dropsonde data indicates that the pressure has fallen further to around 974 mb. Helene is expected to be in a very favorable environment up until landfall, with wind shear less than 10 knots, sea surface temperatures warmer than 30°C (86°F), and mid-level relative humidity values above 70%. This should allow steady, if not rapid, intensification, and the rapid intensification indices are much higher than the climatological mean. The National Hurricane Center currently expects Helene to attain Category 4 intensity before landfall. Helene is expected to produce significant storm surge over the western Florida coast, and could reach as high as 20 feet in the Big Bend region. After landfall, Helene is expected to take a turn to the northwest, bringing heavy rainfall over the Appalachian Mountains region. Helene is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday.

Although the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been far less active than predicted so far in storm count, the Gulf of Mexico has been quite active. Helene is the fourth hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this season, and is expected to be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States.

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As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Gordon was centered near 19.4°N 38.6°W. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Gordon is expected to continue on a generally westward motion through next Tuesday, when it could turn to the north if it does not degenerate into a remnant low before then. Although the vertical shear is not particularly high – only around 10-15 knots – mid-level dry air and atmospheric stability are expected to limit much intensification over the next few days. In fact, most of the model guidance suggests that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low, at least temporarily. If Gordon remains a tropical cyclone, it could encounter more favorable conditions early next week. The ECMWF model shows significant strengthening at that time, but the GFS now shows the cyclone dissipating. Regardless, Gordon is no imminent threat to land.

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Early projections, including our own, predicted that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would have well above-average activity, and could be one of the most active seasons on record. The formation of Hurricane Beryl in late June – the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the basin on record – seemed to confirm that a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season was on the way. Yet, so far, that has not materialized. After no tropical cyclones formed during the month of July, the month of August featured two hurricanes – Debby and Ernesto – so it appeared as if the Atlantic was back on pace for a very busy season. Ernesto transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone on August 20 – the “bell ring” day – and the Atlantic has not had a tropical cyclone active since.

This is incredibly unusual, and the last time the Atlantic basin went through this time of year with no active storms was 1968 – a very quiet season early in the satellite era. The Atlantic has now fallen below-average in named storms through this date (7.4), and has fallen behind most recent seasons in the ongoing era of high tropical cyclone activity. After early expectations suggested the Atlantic basin could exhaust the traditional naming list, there is an increasing chance this season could end up with the fewest named storms since 2015.

There are two main theories for what is causing this lack of activity: 1) an abnormally north African monsoon trough and 2) anomalously stable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. With how far north the African monsoon trough has been recently, tropical waves are emerging into the Atlantic Ocean into cooler waters too far north. In addition, temperatures aloft in the Atlantic basin are nearly at record highs, creating an unfavorable environment for convection.

We are only nearing the midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it is far too soon to write off the rest of the season as a “bust.” With the African monsoon trough likely to retreat southward as well as a climatological increase in instability, it is possible that the back half of the season could be very busy. Don’t let your guard down – just because the Atlantic has gone 17 days without a tropical cyclone near the peak does not mean the rest of the season will be the same way!

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Once a mighty Category 5 hurricane (the earliest in the North Atlantic on record), Tropical Storm Beryl has been slowly strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to make landfall in central Texas early Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Due to dry air and a fairly broad wind field, Beryl has been unable to rapidly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico thus far, but some additional intensification appears likely in the last few hours before landfall.

As of 7:00 p.m. CDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Beryl was centered near 27.1°N 95.6°W, and was moving north-northwestward at approximately 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 987 mb. Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane before making landfall over central Texas Monday morning. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for the central Texas coast. Preparations should be rushed to completion.

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As of 5:00 p.m. EDT (4:00 p.m. CDT local time) Wednesday, Tropical Storm Alberto was centered near 21.9°N 95.3°W, and was moving west-southwestward at approximately 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 995 mb. As is typical with early-season tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, Alberto is a broad system that developed out of the Central American Gyre (CAG). As it is a large tropical storm, impacts from Alberto will occur far away from the center of circulation, with storm surge and heavy rainfall affecting areas as far north as the Texas coast. While environmental conditions appear conducive until landfall with fairly low shear and sea surface temperatures of around 30°C (86°F), Alberto’s large size and wind field suggest only some slight additional intensification is likely.

In addition to Alberto, there are two other systems in the Atlantic basin worth watching for potential tropical development: recently-designated Invest 92L over the southwestern Atlantic, and another area of low pressure expected to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a few days. According to the National Hurricane Center, 92L has a 20 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and 5 days. The Gulf of Mexico system has a near 0 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within 5 days. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Beryl.

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In their 2:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 90L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.9°N 83.9°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. 90L is expected to move generally northeastward over the next few days, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. The most recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF models both suggest some slight development is possible, though significant development appears very unlikely at this time. The first name on the North Atlantic naming list is Alberto.

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