CYCLONIC FURY

2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; tropical cyclone development not expected in the near future

June 1, 2026 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Today is June 1 – the official start date of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. For the third consecutive year, no tropical cyclones formed before the official start of the season. Most forecasters, including CYCLONIC FURY, are predicting the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to be below average, likely the least active since 2015, due to a developing El Nino that is likely to strengthen significantly over the coming months. The following names will be used in the Atlantic basin this…

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Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: below average season likely due to expected El Niño

March 31, 2026 Daulton Bahm Comments 1 comment

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin in just over two months, on June 1. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average season with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, but featured three Category 5 hurricanes (Erin, Humberto and Melissa) – the second-most on record. Melissa, tied as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by wind speed (190 mph), caused devastating damage to Jamaica. As a result, the name Melissa was retired early this month…

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World Meteorological Organization retires the name Melissa, replaced by Molly

March 4, 2026 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) met this week in Mexico City for its 48th session of the Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee. During the conference, the WMO typically retires hurricane names of the past season. Today, the committee retired the name Melissa, which caused catastrophic damage to Jamaica in late October of last year. Melissa’s peak wind speed was recently increased from 185 to 190 mph in its Tropical Cyclone Report, making Melissa tied with Allen (1980) for the strongest…

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Erin explosively intensifies into Category 5 hurricane

August 16, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Erin, the first hurricane (and major hurricane) of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, underwent explosive intensification Friday evening into this morning, and is now a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph north of the Leeward Islands. Erin is the first Category 5 hurricane in the North Atlantic during August since Hurricane Dean in 2007. The Atlantic basin has had at least one Category 5 hurricane form for four straight years. As of 11:20 a.m. EDT…

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Tropical Storm Erin forms over the eastern tropical Atlantic

August 11, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Erin, formed over the eastern tropical Atlantic on Monday morning. Erin is the first “Cabo Verde” type tropical cyclone of the year, which are typically long-lived tropical cyclones that form from African easterly waves off the coast of west Africa. Erin is no imminent threat to land, and is expected to intensify into the first hurricane (and potentially first major hurricane) of the 2025 season over the coming…

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Tropical Storm Chantal forms off the southeastern United States coast

July 5, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, formed Saturday morning due east of the Georgia coastline. Chantal could strengthen slightly today before it moves inland into northeastern South Carolina tomorrow morning. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Chantal was centered near 31.1°N 78.7°W, and was moving northward at 1 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Chantal is a sheared tropical cyclone,…

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Tropical Storm Barry approaching the Gulf coast of Mexico, expected to make landfall tonight

June 29, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Poorly-organized Tropical Depression Two over the Bay of Campeche became better organized this morning, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry – the second named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Barry is likely at its peak intensity, and the disorganized tropical storm is expected to make landfall in eastern Mexico tonight. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Tropical Storm Barry was centered near 21.2°N 96.9°W, and was moving northwestward at approximately 9 mph. Maximum sustained…

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Tropical Depression Two rapidly develops over the Bay of Campeche

June 28, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic basin’s second tropical cyclone of 2025, Tropical Depression Two, formed Saturday afternoon over the Bay of Campeche. At this time yesterday, the disturbance that became TD Two was only given a 20 percent chance of development. But as is common in the Bay of Campeche, especially this time of year, the curvature of the coastline resulted in the development of a small low-level circulation. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed that the circulation is now well-defined, and…

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Invest 91L could develop over the Bay of Campeche late this weekend

June 27, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

A broad area of low pressure, Invest 91L, has been designated over the southwestern Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently gives 91L a 30 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and seven days. 91L is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where additional development is possible. The environment for 91L is only marginally conducive for development. Although sea surface temperatures are warm enough, upper level winds are expected to be strong except over…

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Tropical Storm Andrea forms over the central Atlantic

June 24, 2025 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed this morning over the Central Atlantic Ocean. Andrea is a very disorganized tropical storm in only a marginally favorable environment, and is expected to be a short-lived cyclone. Andrea is no threat to land. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Andrea was centered near 36.6°N 48.9°W, and was moving east-northeastward at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated…

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