Tropical Waves Archives - CYCLONIC FURY

New African wave could develop, 91E not very likely to develop, Noru a serious threat to southern Japan

August 2, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

There are several areas to watch in the Northern Hemisphere tropics today, but the Atlantic and East Pacific both do not have a tropical cyclone active – the first occurrence of such event since July 7. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave has a chance to develop into the Atlantic’s next tropical cyclone, and could end up as a long-tracked storm. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 91E has become slightly better organized today, but is not very likely to develop…

Watching the Atlantic: a tropical wave and a monsoon gyre – not imminent threats at this time

June 14, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

There continues to be two areas of interest in the Atlantic today, both only having a low chance of development within the next five days. Models continue to indicate that a broad area of low pressure will likely form over the Northwestern Caribbean during the next few days, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance of…

Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

June 5, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The CFSv2 and GFS models are consistent with showing an increase in upward motion in the eastern tropical Atlantic in about 7-10 days. In addition, the models show well above-normal rainfall just off the coast of Africa. This indicates that a major uptick in African tropical waves is likely soon, with stronger, more vigorous waves emerging into the Atlantic. Tropical wave activity in the Atlantic typically begins in mid-to-late May and lasts until November, occasionally early December, with a peak…

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