CYCLONIC FURY

As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season. For the East Pacific basin, NOAA is expecting 14 to 20 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes. Their report calls for a 40% chance of an above-normal season, 40% chance of a near-normal season and a 20% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is predicting above-normal activity in the Central Pacific as well, forecasting 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to enter the region. Just like the East Pacific basin, NOAA gives the Central Pacific a 40% chance of above-normal activity, a 40% chance of near-normal activity and a 20% chance of below-normal activity.

I somewhat agree with these forecasts, but I think the Atlantic forecast in particular could be a little on the high end. I prefer to keep my numbers at a conservative 13-6-3, based on the fact that El Niño is still a slight possibility. The 2017 season looks unique in that both basins could end up above average – similar to last season. No basin has a strong “advantage” leading into this upcoming season. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

I’ll be back for another post tomorrow – my weekly “A Look at the Atlantic” post.