It’s Friday, and that means it is time for a look at the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean continue to warm gradually as we near the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season next Thursday.  The Atlantic should remain quiet for a bit longer, but should be primed for activity fairly soon.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

Based on the latest Reynolds SST analysis, SSTs have now reached 26°C  – the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development – in most of the Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf Stream as far north as the Outer Banks. It is Memorial Day Weekend, and this is when the beach season in the Southeast usually begins – the waters are now nearly warm enough for swimming (and tropical cyclones too)! Last Memorial Day Weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie formed and made landfall near Charleston, South Carolina, but this Memorial Day should be quiet in the Atlantic.  Sea surface temperatures have also reached 26°C in most of the eastern Tropical Atlantic, but we should not expect any activity in this region until July at the earliest. By early June, the entire Gulf of Mexico should have sea surface temperatures above 26°C – and this is the region where most June Atlantic storms form.

Sea surface temperature anomalies remain positive in the eastern Atlantic, especially just off the West African Coast. This pattern is typically consistent with the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which favors high activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, sea surface temperatures remain below normal in the far North Atlantic – but I expect these sea surface temperature anomalies to increase in the summer like they did last year. Sea surface temperature anomalies remain negative in the central subtropical Atlantic as well, but are positive just off the U.S. East Coast.

WIND SHEAR

Wind shear across the Atlantic remains high, except in a few pockets in the subtropics. No models have indicated any development in this region…so it appears extremely unlikely that we will see a May storm in the Atlantic this year. Wind shear should slowly decrease between now and early September, when it reaches its lowest.

AFRICAN TROPICAL WAVES

The African “wave train” is very quiet right now, with very little thunderstorm activity in the area. This is likely a result of continued sinking air based on an unfavorable MJO phase, as well as a robust Saharan Air Layer. This is normal for May; tropical waves are usually weak in strength until late July but sometimes survive the Atlantic and develop in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean early in the season.

I’ll be back for two posts tomorrow: one in the morning about the updated 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, and another in the afternoon about two systems we are watching: one in the North Indian Ocean and one in the East Pacific Ocean. All remains quiet for now in the Atlantic, though.