Update 5:00 PM EDT: Invest 94B has now developed into Tropical Cyclone 02B.

Invest 94B in the Bay of Bengal of the Indian Ocean is nearly a tropical cyclone. 94B has had persistent deep convection for several hours now, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the circulation of the system was well-defined. The ASCAT pass also showed winds of tropical storm force. 94B is likely to develop into Cyclonic Storm Mora during the next day or two, and could make landfall in Bangladesh as a hurricane-strength tropical cyclone early next week.

Tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are relatively common for this time of year. Last May, Cyclonic Storm Roanu formed off Southeastern India, eventually tracking northeastward towards landfall in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Roanu caused nearly $1.7 billion in damage and over 200 fatalities. We have already had one tropical cyclone form in the North Indian Ocean this season: weak Cyclonic Storm Maarutha in mid-April, which made landfall in Myanmar and caused minimal damage.

In the East Pacific, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has noted the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming “a couple hundred miles” off the coast of Southern Mexico. At their 11:00 AM PDT outlook for May 27, 2017, the NHC gave this system a near 0 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. While the GFS model shows no development of this system, the ECMWF model shows development of a weak tropical cyclone in about 5 days or so. If this system acquires organized deep convection, winds of 40 mph, and a well-defined circulation, it will be named Tropical Storm Beatriz.

In the West Pacific, there is also Invest 95W in the South China Sea, which has only a low chance of development. 95W is expected to continue to move to the northeast and could pass near Taiwan by the middle of next week.

The Atlantic continues to remain quiet for now, but the CFS and GFS models have indicated that the Atlantic could become more favorable in about 10 days or so. In addition, the ECMWF model has indicated the possibility of a low pressure area forming in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico in a week or so. We will have to keep watching. I will be back for another post tomorrow about these systems.