Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
Yesterday, Britain-based meteorological company Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an updated forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted that the 2017 Atlantic season would have near-normal activity overall, with 14 (+/- 4) named storms, 6 (+/- 3) hurricanes and 3 (+/- 2) major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 98 (+/- 48). This is an increase from their previous forecast on April 5, in which they predicted 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The reason for their increase in forecast numbers – much like The Weather Channel last weekend – is due to the decreasing chances of El Niño forming, as well as warming waters in the Atlantic Main Development Region.
The activity predicted by TSR is very near the average of activity in the Atlantic during the last 10 years. In the Main Development Region, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, TSR is predicting 9 (+/- 2) named storms, 4 (+/- 2) hurricanes, and 2 (+/- 1) major hurricanes to develop, with an ACE index of 80 (+/- 44). TSR gives the 2017 season a 33% chance of having above-below activity, a 40% chance of near-normal activity, and only a 20% chance of below-normal activity. TSR also noted that forecast uncertainties remain sizable, with still a large range of possibilities for the upcoming 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.
I will be back for another post later today, discussing Invest 94B in the North Indian Ocean as well as a possible system in the East Pacific.
2 thoughts on “Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season”
Hey Daulton ,
Any doozy’ s for the Jersey area!?
The New Jersey area is not an area that typically sees much impact from fully tropical cyclones, but in uncommon cases, it can happen (such as Irene, 2011). However, it is more likely for the area to have “post-tropical” cyclone impacts, such as Sandy (2012) and Hermine (2016). New Jersey is unlikely to see anything outside of the August-October period because water temperatures are typically not warm enough off the New Jersey coast until then. There is a low chance of a storm impacting New Jersey this season, but it probably won’t be any time soon.