Cyclonic Storm Mora has strengthened slightly since yesterday over the Bay of Bengal. As of 12:00 UTC this morning, Mora had 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph), and 3-minute maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (50 mph). As noted yesterday, moderate wind shear seems to be preventing any rapid intensification of Mora before landfall, as the center of circulation is located along the eastern edge of the deep convection.

Mora lacks an eye feature, but has overall become slightly better organized compared to yesterday. Mora could strengthen slightly more before landfall, however, possibly into a hurricane-strength cyclone. The models are in agreement that landfall will occur somewhere near Chittagong, Bangladesh, around 09:00 AM Tuesday local time (11:00 PM EDT Monday). Mora is expected to make landfall in approximately the same location that Cyclonic Storm Roanu did in May 2016, which became Earth’s third-deadliest tropical cyclone of the year behind only Hurricane Matthew and Typhoon Lionrock. Mora is likely to lead to heavy flooding in the region, as it is a somewhat large storm with heavy thunderstorm activity. After landfall, Mora is likely to quickly dissipate as it moves inland into Bangladesh.

The ECMWF model has continued to indicate the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the East Pacific during the next several days. A broad area of low pressure formed in the region yesterday, but is currently disorganized with minimal convective activity. The 00z Monday run indicated a tropical depression could form southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday, before moving northeastward and likely dissipating prior to landfall. Systems in this region are common early in the East Pacific season, with a recent example being Tropical Depression One-E of the 2016 Pacific hurricane season, which formed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and degenerated into a remnant low prior to landfall. I currently give a 40 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming in this region over the next five days, slightly lower than the 50 percent chance given by the National Hurricane Center, due to the fact that only the ECMWF and CMC models show development, with no development on the GFS model. If a tropical cyclone does indeed form in this region, it will likely be weak and probably will not be able to survive into the Atlantic basin if it moves northward towards the Bay of Campeche. If a named storm does form from this system, it would be named Beatriz, but it is possible that a tropical depression could form without being named.

On the Atlantic side, the ECMWF model continues to show an area of low pressure forming in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico about a week out, but it does not show a well-defined tropical cyclone. The GFS model does not even show a low pressure area forming. I give a 10 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic basin as a whole during the next 10 days.

I will be back tomorrow for an update on Mora and the possible East Pacific system.