At 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E south of Mexico in the East Pacific. Maximum winds were estimated to be 25 knots (30 mph), along with a minimum pressure of 1007 millibars. The cyclone was centered near 13.9°N 97.8°W, with the center located near the center of an area of deep convection. Two-E was moving northeastward at about 3 mph. 

The NHC expects TD Two-E to slowly strengthen over the next five days with a northeast movement through Saturday and a westward movement after that time. The official NHC forecast calls for Two-E to intensify into Tropical Storm Beatriz, expecting a 60-mph tropical storm by early next week. Models disagree over the depression’s future track, with a landfall in Mexico not out of the question. I am skeptical that Two-E will persist as long as indicated and the NHC forecast, and I also personally think it won’t get quite as strong as indicated by them due to the cyclone’s proximity to land. The GFS model shows Two-E dissipating within 36 hours before landfall while the ECMWF shows the cyclone taking a path closer to the NHC projection. 

The 12z SHIPS model indicated that wind shear around Two-E was a moderately favorable 10 knots, along with sea surface temperatures over 29°C. Such a pattern would normally favor strengthening, but the cyclone’s proximity to the mountains of Mexico will likely limit significant intensification. 

I will be back for a blog post tonight if Two-E intensifies into a named storm. In addition, Atlantic hurricane season begins tomorrow, so I will write a blog post tomorrow about entering the new season.