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Month: May 2017

2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

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Tomorrow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release their official 2017 forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. This forecast is usually the most anticipated one of the year. Last year, NOAA predicted in late May that the Atlantic would see 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. This forecast verified quite well at the upper end of the range, with the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season seeing 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes…

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Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

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As we approach the start of Atlantic hurricane season, a term you may see pop up now and then is “Accumulated Cyclone Energy.” Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measurement of the activity of a hurricane season, based on storm intensity and duration. It is calculated for each individual storm by taking the sum of the storm’s intensity, in knots, squared, at six-hour intervals, divided by 10000. For instance, if a storm had 40-knot winds for one advisory, the ACE…

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Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

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Sunday’s model runs of the GFS and ECMWF have nearly abandoned the idea of tropical development in the East Pacific or Caribbean. None of the 12z Sunday GFS or ECMWF runs showed development of a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere over the next 10 days. In fact, meteorologist Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center practically said to disregard Caribbean storms shown on the GFS model at this point in the season, posting on Twitter: “GFS seems like it…

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Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

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The tropics may not be quiet for much longer. Some tropical development is possible next week, but models are not in agreement on which basin will see activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently unfavorable, but both the GFS and CFS models show the MJO becoming more favorable in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic by the week 2 period. The 12z Saturday ECMWF model indicated the possibility of development in the East Pacific about 7-8 days out, while the…

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A history of May tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of May tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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While not officially part of Atlantic hurricane season, May has seen plenty of tropical cyclones over the years. According to NOAA, the month of May has seen a total of 22 tropical storms and four hurricanes since reliable records began in 1851, making it the most active month outside of the official seasonal bounds of June 1 to November 30. Based on these data, on average, an Atlantic tropical cyclone forms in May about once every ten years. This total…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

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Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are slowly warming up, while wind shear is slowly decreasing. The Atlantic basin is not quite ready for tropical cyclones yet, but should be fairly soon. Each Friday when a storm is not active, I will do a detailed analysis of the Atlantic, including sea surface temperatures and anomalies, wind shear, and convective activity. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES  Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic continue to slowly warm up, with the 26°C isotherm now stretching…

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My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

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On Wednesday, May 10, I was fortunate enough to get a chance to visit the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Awareness Tour at Raleigh-Durham International Airport. I had also attended this event several years ago, but I do not remember much about it. However, unlike last time, this time I was able to see the WC-130J AF309 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Last season I began to closely monitor the Air Force reconnaissance flights to get a better idea of the rate of…

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Tropical Atlantic, East Pacific likely to be quiet for a while

Tropical Atlantic, East Pacific likely to be quiet for a while

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The tropics in the Atlantic and East Pacific are likely to remain quiet for the next week or two. Don’t expect the formation of Bret or Beatriz in the near future. Last week, a somewhat favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pattern allowed Tropical Storm Adrian to spin up in the East Pacific. However, the favorable MJO has moved out of the Western Hemisphere, and is heading towards the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. A favorable MJO pattern is characterized by moist, rising…

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ECMWF May climate forecast update is in, still showing El Niño but shows a less hostile tropical Atlantic than previous runs

ECMWF May climate forecast update is in, still showing El Niño but shows a less hostile tropical Atlantic than previous runs

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Each month, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) runs a climate model to predict temperature and rainfall trends throughout the world. This model also is used to predict sea surface temperature, and this helps meteorologists predict the upcoming hurricane season. The May update to the ECMWF climate model was released to the public today. It shows a more favorable Atlantic for the peak season period of August/September/October, with near-normal rainfall in the both the Atlantic Main Development…

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My 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

My 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Welcome to Cyclonic Fury’s Daily Blog! From now until the end of November, I will add a blog post nearly every day about the latest news in tropical weather. Today is May 15 – and the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in only 17 days.  Tropical cyclones form primarily in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30 (the dates that are officially considered Atlantic hurricane season), however, they can form before or after these dates, as evidenced by Tropical…

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