CYCLONIC FURY

Today is June 1, which marks the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. It should be noted that we had Tropical Storm Arlene form in April, so technically the season has already started. The 6-month period from June 1 to November 30 accounts for roughly 97 percent of all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Activity sharply peaks around September 10, with a secondary peak around October 20. Unlike during the off-season, during the June 1 to November 30 period, the National Hurricane Center issues routine Tropical Weather Outlooks every six hours, at 2:00 AM, 8:00 AM, 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM EDT.

The graphic indicated above displays the amount of activity at different points in the Atlantic hurricane season. June and July are usually fairly quiet, with only about 1-2 storms forming before August 1 on average. Activity jumps in August, which averages 2-3 named storms alone, with a peak in September which averages around 4 storms. Activity usually begins to slow down in October, which averages about 2 named storms, and November averages one storm about two out of every three years. The “Cape Verde” part of the season – where a large amount of named storms form from African easterly waves in the far eastern Atlantic – usually lasts from about July 25 to September 30, with a spike in activity from August 15 to September 20. An “average” Atlantic hurricane season has about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of about 92 units.

Agency	Date	Named storms	Hurricanes	Major hurricanes
Global Weather Oscillations	April 17, 2017	16	8	4
North Carolina State University	April 18, 2017	11-15	4-6	1-3
WeatherBELL	May 2017	11-13	4-6	1-2
Cyclonic Fury	May 15, 2017	14	6	3
The Weather Channel	May 20, 2017	14	7	3
NOAA	May 25, 2017	11-17	5-9	2-4
Tropical Storm Risk	May 26, 2017	14	6	3
UK Meteorological Office	June 1, 2017	13	8	N/A
Colorado State University	June 1, 2017	14	6	2

The graph above indicates the most recent seasonal forecasts issued by major forecasting agencies. There is a consensus for a near average to slightly above average season among most of the forecasting agencies. My forecast of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes is fairly similar to most of the forecasts issued by the experts, but is somewhat more conservative than the official pre-season forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

There is a long season ahead and I plan on blogging at least once a day during active periods.  This is cliché but it is very true: regardless of the season’s activity, it only takes one storm to be destructive. I will be back for a blog post tomorrow discussing the landfall of Tropical Depression Two-E.