Tropical Depression Two-E has taken a more northward path than originally expected yesterday, and is now expected to make landfall in the Mexican State of Oaxaca this afternoon or evening. As of 10:00 AM CDT (11:00 AM EDT) Thursday, Tropical Depression Two-E was centered near 15.4°N 97.1°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 6 mph. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were estimated to be 30 knots (35 mph), with a minimum pressure of 1005 millibars.

As I noted yesterday, the large size and proximity to land of Tropical Depression Two-E has really limited its potential to strengthen. Two-E is not a well organized system, and has actually lost organization since yesterday. Two-E’s convection is poorly organized, and its circulation has become elongated and poorly defined. Last night for a brief time around 2:00 AM EDT, Two-E’s Dvorak T-numbers from several agencies supported tropical storm strength, but the cyclone’s appearance degraded this morning and the depression was not named Beatriz. It is therefore possible that Two-E briefly reached tropical storm strength last night. It seems unlikely that Two-E will be able to acquire tropical storm strength at this point since landfall is imminent.  However, a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Mexican coast from Salina Cruz to Puerto Escondido. The primary threat from Two-E will be heavy rains, which should continue to spread across southern Mexico for the next several hours.

It seems like the most likely scenario for Two-E will be that its circulation dissipates over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. However, remnant energy from Two-E is likely to emerge into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and a broad low pressure area may form. Tropical cyclone development is unlikely, though, in the Gulf of Mexico due to very strong wind shear, and the National Hurricane Center has not placed this system on its Tropical Weather Outlook.

I will be back for another blog post today about the start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.