CYCLONIC FURY

Tropical Storm Beatriz made landfall Thursday afternoon in the Mexican state of Oaxaca around 4:00 PM local time. This morning, Beatriz rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, dissipating by 10:00 AM CDT. Beatriz at landfall was estimated to have maximum winds of at least 40 knots (45 mph) along with a minimum pressure of 1002 millibars, based on a ship report. This makes Beatriz the strongest storm so far of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz has already been reported to have caused at least three fatalities in Southwestern Mexico.

Yesterday, models were hinting at the possibility that Beatriz’s remnant low could emerge into the Gulf of Mexico where a new area of low pressure could form. Today, models have largely dropped the idea of regeneration, with no reliable models expecting development in the Gulf of Mexico in the near future. Strong shear seems to be the reason for the lack of redevelopment indicated on the models. In addition, the National Hurricane Center has not mentioned Beatriz’s remnants on its Tropical Weather Outlook.  Therefore, I do not think we will see Tropical Storm Bret in the near future, but models have indicated the possibility of a favorable MJO phase entering the Atlantic by mid-June. I will discuss this more tomorrow in my post tomorrow.

I will be back tomorrow for my weekly “A Look At The Atlantic” post; usually I release these posts on Friday but with Beatriz active I have decided to delay that post until tomorrow.