Usually I release “A Look At The Atlantic” posts on Fridays, but with Beatriz, I had to delay this post until today. Anyway, it is time to take a look at the Atlantic, the first since the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

The Atlantic remains mostly quiet, with the exception of an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, which is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The National Hurricane Center mentioned the system in their 2:00 PM EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, giving it a “near 0 percent” chance of development in both 48 hours and five days. The 00z ECMWF EPS ensembles were somewhat bullish on tropical development in this region, but with wind shear high, I give this system about a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days. It is not impossible that development does occur, even with the “near 0 percent” chance from the National Hurricane Center, but I certainly would not bet on it.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 

Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic continue to climb as we enter the official Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts until November 30. Sea surface temperatures have reached up to 27-28°C (80.6-82.4°F) throughout most of the Gulf of Mexico, with sea surface temperatures around 29°C (84.2°F) in the Bay of Campeche.  In addition, sea surface temperatures have climbed to 28°C (82.4°F) along parts of the Gulf Stream off the Southeastern United States coast. The Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) remains warmer than average, with sea surface temperatures warming up to around 26-27°C (78.8-80.6°F) in much of this region. These surface temperatures are warm enough to support tropical cyclone development, but wind shear remains high in the most of the Atlantic basin, as noted below.

WIND SHEAR 

Wind shear continues to remain unfavorable throughout the vast majority of the Atlantic basin. Much of the Atlantic Main Development Region, Western Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico has wind shear above 30 knots (35 mph). This is not favorable for tropical cyclone development or strengthening. However, it should be stressed that high shear is completely normal for the month of June, and this shear should progressively decrease as we progress through the season, bottoming out in early-mid September. It should also be noted that in uncommon cases, tropical cyclones can form or even strengthen despite moderate or strong wind shear, such as Tropical Storm Colin in June 2016. It should also be noted that the wind shear map from the University of Wisconsin is not always 100 percent reliable, but it does seem somewhat correct in that wind shear remains high across the Atlantic Ocean.

AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES

African tropical wave activity is beginning to show signs of picking up. A possible tropical wave is currently located near the country of Ghana, accompanied by moderate thunderstorm activity. While this tropical wave is extremely unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic MDR due to unfavorable conditions typical for the time of year, there is a chance for it to develop in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean in the long range due to the expected passage of a favorable Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) in mid-June. This scenario has not been suggested by any global models, however.  Saharan dust is present throughout much of the Atlantic MDR, also typical for this time of year. Saharan dust outbreaks should continue to occur periodically for the next two months or so, usually suppressing tropical development in this region.

I will be back tomorrow for a post on a history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.