The CFSv2 and GFS models are consistent with showing an increase in upward motion in the eastern tropical Atlantic in about 7-10 days. In addition, the models show well above-normal rainfall just off the coast of Africa. This indicates that a major uptick in African tropical waves is likely soon, with stronger, more vigorous waves emerging into the Atlantic. Tropical wave activity in the Atlantic typically begins in mid-to-late May and lasts until November, occasionally early December, with a peak in late August or early September.

These tropical waves are unlikely to develop in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) as noted in yesterday’s post, but there is still a very slight chance that could happen. In 2003, Tropical Depression Two formed on June 11 south of 10°N and east of 50°W, so history indicates that June MDR development is very rare but not impossible. This is an unusually favorable setup for African tropical wave activity for the month of June, and definitely bears watching. A slightly more likely possibility is development does not occur in the Main Development Region, but the waves survives its trek across the Atlantic and develops in the Northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

The global tropics are mostly dead today, with the exception of Invest 95A in the Arabian Sea, which has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few days. I will be back for another blog post tomorrow.