The tropics are likely about to get active in both the Atlantic and Pacific with multiple areas to watch. Several recent model runs have predicted the development of a large, disorganized tropical cyclone in the Northwest Caribbean in about a week. The 12z Saturday GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM models all predicted the second Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year to form by June 20.  The CMC track is farther east and predicts a landfall in Florida by Day 10, but the ECMWF and GFS predict that the cyclone will emerge into the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The development on the models appears to be due to the presence of a monsoon gyre, which can result in large, disorganized tropical cyclones forming in both the Western Atlantic and East Pacific.

Considerable uncertainty remains, since the system being depicted on the models remains over five days out. However, the model consensus is very strong for a tropical cyclone to develop this far out. There is still a chance a tropical cyclone forms in the East Pacific instead (unrelated to Invest 92E – I will discuss that later in this post).  The Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is typically the primary hotspot for June tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, and this is definitely a pattern that bears watching. I give a 40 percent chance of Tropical Storm Bret forming during the next ten days.

In the East Pacific…Saturday afternoon, Invest 92E was declared by the National Hurricane Center. At 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM EDT) Saturday afternoon, 92E was centered south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 13.8°N 93.8°W, with maximum sustained winds near 25 knots (30 mph). 92E currently consists of disorganized showers and thunderstorms with moderate convective activity. The convective organization has become better organized today, though, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has increased their development probability to 20 percent chance in 48 hours and a 40 percent chance in 5 days. According to the 18:00 UTC Saturday SHIPS model, wind shear around 92E is currently favorable, around 10 knots, but is expected to increase slightly over the next few days. Sea surface temperatures are more than warm enough to support development, around 29°C (84.2°F).  The 12z Saturday GFS run does not develop 92E, and the 12z Saturday ECMWF run predicts a minimal tropical cyclone to develop by Wednesday. Because model support is not very strong for 92E at this time…I agree with the NHC’s 40 percent chance of development in 5 days. If this system develops a well-defined circulations and winds of at least 34 knots (39 mph), it will be named Tropical Storm Calvin.

Invest 96W in the West Pacific and Invest 96B in the Bay of Bengal are also active, but models are not overly optimistic about significant development with these two systems.

I will be back tomorrow with another blog post on the possible Caribbean system and Invest 92E.