Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret Monday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center after an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft identified a well-defined circulation. This makes Bret the earliest Atlantic named storm to form in the Atlantic deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles on record. In addition, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in the Gulf of Mexico – which is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Cindy tomorrow and threaten East Texas or Louisiana later this week.

Tropical Storm Bret: The earliest Atlantic named storm in the MDR on record

After several passes through the center, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was finally able to observe a sufficiently well defined center of circulation to upgrade Potential Tropical Cyclone Two into Tropical Storm Bret. As of 5:00 PM EDT Monday afternoon, Bret was centered near 9.4°N 59.8°W, with the center being located by the reconnaissance aircraft. Bret had maximum sustained winds of at 35 knots (40 mph), along with an estimated central pressure of 1007 mb. It is possible, however, that the reconnaissance aircraft was unable to sample the maximum winds since it spent nearly all of its time searching for a center of circulation. Bret was moving to the west-northwest at the fast pace of 30 mph. Bret’s fast movement will likely its potential to strengthen much more before its expected pass near Trinidad and Tobago. The latest NHC forecast does not forecast any strengthening, although some slight strengthening is possible during the next few hours before land interaction is likely to weaken the system. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear to remain somewhat low for the next 24 hours or so. After that time, wind shear is expected to quickly increase, and global models as well as the NHC forecast predict that Bret will dissipate over the east-central Caribbean Sea.

Bret continues to produce a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms, with a curved banding structure. Bret’s structure should begin to degrade soon, as land interaction will likely take its toll on the system. Although Bret will not be a very strong storm, it will remain historic. Bret is the earliest Atlantic named storm to form in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles (in the area commonly known as the Atlantic MDR). However, it did not acquire tropical cyclone status until 9.4°N, so it was unable to surpass Isidore of 1990 for the lowest-latitude Atlantic tropical cyclone formation on record. The next Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will enter Bret early tomorrow morning.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three expected to become Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm Cindy

Monday afternoon, the NHC also initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Three is currently a disorganized system, with multiple low-level swirls seen on satellite imagery. Nearly all of its convective activity is east of its estimated center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Three to see if its circulation has become better defined.

As of 5:00 PM EDT (4:00 PM CDT local time), Three was centered near 24.7°N 88.7°W, and was moving to the north at a speed of 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Strong wind shear of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph) is expected to limit intensification. The NHC only predicts a peak intensity of 45 mph, based on the intensity guidance. However, the GFS and ECMWF models predict that Three could be slightly stronger than that.  The NHC expects Three to become a subtropical or tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane intensity is nearly out of the question, as it is not predicted by any model, however a strong tropical storm cannot be ruled out. The next Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will visit Three tomorrow morning.

The forecast track for Three has become more certain than past days. Most models are now predicting a landfall to occur in Louisiana, with the western outlier ECMWF predicting a landfall in Texas. A landfall in Mexico or Florida now seems unlikely. It should be noted, however, that the heaviest impacts from Three will likely be experienced east of the center position, since wind shear is largely pushing the thunderstorm activity to the east of Three’s center.  Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the eastern Louisiana coast, including the New Orleans area. Tropical storm watches have also been issued for the western Louisiana coast and extreme eastern Texas coast. The heavy threat with Three will be heavy rain – like most early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones.

I will be back for another post tomorrow on Bret and Three.