Tropical Storm Cindy remains disorganized today over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Cindy is expected to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border around 4:00 AM CDT (local time) Thursday. Cindy’s formation date of June 20 is nearly two months earlier than the climatological average date of the third named storm, August 13. However, it should be stressed that early-season Gulf of Mexico storms are not a strong indicator of the overall seasonal activity (but early-season development in the deep tropics, such as with Tropical Storm Bret, is often a sign an above average season is ahead).

Cindy inching closer to landfall near Texas-Louisiana border, heavy rain the main threat

The structure of Cindy has changed somewhat since yesterday. Yesterday, most of Cindy’s convection was located to the east of the center. Today, the convection to the east of the center has waned, and the only significant deep convection is located in a small area just northwest of the center of circulation. Cindy’s low-level circulation remains mostly exposed to view, although the convection is slightly closer to the center compared to yesterday. Cindy continues to display an unusual appearance, resembling more of a subtropical or extratropical cyclone than a traditional tropical cyclone.  Strong wind shear and dry air continues to affect Cindy, and deep convection has not been able to develop right over the center.

As of 1:00 PM CDT, Cindy was centered near 27.7°N 92.9°W, and was moving to the northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 45 knots (50 mph), with a minimum pressure of 995 mb. Although the maximum winds peaked at 50 knots (60 mph) briefly last night, they have decreased slightly today despite Cindy reaching its minimum pressure. Intensification seems unlikely before landfall due to Cindy’s disorganized structure and continued strong wind shear. Cindy will likely remain intact as a tropical depression for a day or two after landfall since it will be mainly traversing flat terrain. Model guidance predicts that Cindy will eventually make a turn to the northeast over Arkansas, and Cindy’s impacts will spread as far northeast as Virginia. The NHC expects Cindy to degrade to a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday, before dissipating completely on Sunday.

A tropical storm warning is currently in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The primary threat with Cindy continues to be heavy rain and flooding. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur east of Cindy’s center, although Cindy currently has stronger convection on its west side. Heavy rains are expected to continue throughout the Southeast through this weekend. Rainfall amounts of 6-9 inches are possible in parts of the Gulf Coast, with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches possible. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially on Cindy’s east side. Winds are not likely to be particularly strong with Cindy, but winds of up to 45-50 mph are possible.

Another tropical wave to watch?

The 12z Wednesday GFS operational run, as well as several 12z Wednesday GEFS ensemble members, are predicting a vigorous tropical wave to exit the coast of Africa this weekend. They indicate a slight possibility for this tropical wave to develop into a tropical depression southeast of the Cape Verde islands. However, at present, only the GFS and GEFS are really showing this system. Based on the limited model support outside of the GFS model, I only give this tropical wave a 10 percent chance to develop within the next ten days. However, this tropical wave bears watching, regardless.

I will be back for another post tomorrow discussing Cindy’s landfall.