Invest 93E in the Eastern Pacific has become better organized today, and is very close to becoming a tropical depression. 93E has a very large convective canopy, but lacks a central dense overcast.  This could be the reason why it has not yet been classified as a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center gives 93E a 90 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. They also said that advisories could be initiated tonight if the organization trend continues. An ASCAT pass from last night indicated that 93E had developed a well-defined circulation. 93E remains embedded in the monsoon trough. Model support for 93E’s development is strong, with the ECMWF, GFS and CMC models all predicting cyclogenesis within the next 48 hours. The next name on the East Pacific naming list is Dora.

As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, 93E was centered near 13.5°N 98.6°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. 93E is expected to continue moving to the west-northwestward over the next several days parallel to the coast of Mexico. Landfall in Mexico is not expected with this system. Global models and the intensity guidance predict some deepening with 93E, and 93E is likely to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane by Tuesday. 93E is expected to remain in an environment of low wind shear, less than 10 knots, throughout the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable at 28-29°C (82.4-84.2°F), but by 48 hours they are expected to fall below 26°C (78.8°F) and strengthening is unlikely after that time. Rapid or significant strengthening with 93E seems unlikely because the cyclone is only expected to have about 48 hours over warm water.

I will be back for another post tomorrow on 93E, which will likely be classified as a tropical cyclone tonight.