Dora weakens to a remnant low, development in both Atlantic and East Pacific unlikely in near future
Farewell, Dora
The life of Hurricane Dora – the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2017 by wind speed – came to an end this morning. Dora became devoid of deep convection last night, and new convection did not redevelop. As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared Dora a remnant low at 9:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) and terminated advisories. Dora is now just a swirl of low-level clouds, but a vigorous circulation remains. Dora is situated over waters typically too cold for deep convection to redevelop, and regeneration is not expected. The remnants of Dora are expected to move to the west-northwest over the East Pacific for the next day or two before eventually spinning down and dissipating.
Atlantic tropical wave not expected to develop, Pacific system only has a low chance of developing over next five days
An Atlantic tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa today at a fairly high latitude. Previously, the GFS and ECMWF models developed this wave, but no recent model runs develop this system. Unfavorable and conditions and climatology are expected to not allow this wave to develop. As a result, the NHC dropped it from its Tropical Weather Outlook this morning. In the East Pacific, an area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend south of Mexico. The NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance of development within five days. There is a lack of model support for this system, as none of the most recent GFS, ECMWF, CMC or UKMET runs predict development within five days. However, there are indications on both the ECMWF and GFS models that the East Pacific could see a developing tropical cyclone in the 7-10 day range. The Atlantic basin now looks likely to remain quiet for the next week at least.
I will be back tomorrow for a feature story on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – an oscillation of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly patterns that is believed to have an impact on the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons.