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Month: June 2017

Increasing chance of tropical development in Northwest Caribbean next weekend, Invest 92E designated in the East Pacific

Increasing chance of tropical development in Northwest Caribbean next weekend, Invest 92E designated in the East Pacific

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The tropics are likely about to get active in both the Atlantic and Pacific with multiple areas to watch. Several recent model runs have predicted the development of a large, disorganized tropical cyclone in the Northwest Caribbean in about a week. The 12z Saturday GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM models all predicted the second Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year to form by June 20.  The CMC track is farther east and predicts a landfall in Florida by Day 10,…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 9, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 9, 2017

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It is Friday, and that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic remains quiet for now, with the National Hurricane Center not expecting the development of any new tropical cyclones during the next five days. However, there are indications that the Atlantic could wake up in the long range – I will discuss this in detail tomorrow. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic continue to gradually warm up with time….

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June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Thursday morning, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their monthly discussion on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is typically released on the second Thursday of each month. Their update lowered the chances of El Niño for fall 2017, with chances being lowered from about 45% to 35-40%. No El Niño Watch was issued, meaning the development of El Niño is not imminent. This continues the trend of the past few ENSO discussions: lowering chances of El Niño and increasing chances of ENSO-neutral…

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Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

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A westerly wind burst is expected to occur in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. Westerly wind bursts are often associated with the development of El Niño, but they can also enhance cyclonic turning at the low latitudes. Most models agree that an area of low pressure is likely to form in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea in 48-72 hours, with the low likely moving inland into Central America by hour 96. Tropical cyclone development at this latitude is fairly rare because usually…

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The GFS model runs for 384 hours, but do not trust the model beyond 240 hours: here is why

The GFS model runs for 384 hours, but do not trust the model beyond 240 hours: here is why

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The American Global Forecast System (GFS) model is one of the most reliable models used by meteorologists to predict the tracks of tropical cyclones. It runs on six-hour intervals at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC, for 384 hours (16 days). The GFS is the only major tropical weather model that runs for 384 hours: the CMC and ECMWF models run for 240 hours (ten days), while the HWRF hurricane model runs for 126 hours (just over five days). The…

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Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

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The CFSv2 and GFS models are consistent with showing an increase in upward motion in the eastern tropical Atlantic in about 7-10 days. In addition, the models show well above-normal rainfall just off the coast of Africa. This indicates that a major uptick in African tropical waves is likely soon, with stronger, more vigorous waves emerging into the Atlantic. Tropical wave activity in the Atlantic typically begins in mid-to-late May and lasts until November, occasionally early December, with a peak…

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A history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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June is the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and is on average the least active of the six months that make up the season. According to NOAA, the month of June has seen 92 total tropical cyclones since reliable records began in 1851. Of these 92 tropical cyclones, just 33 (35.9%) of them became hurricanes. This means that, on average, a named storm forms in June in slightly over half of all years. In uncommon cases, two or…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

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Usually I release “A Look At The Atlantic” posts on Fridays, but with Beatriz, I had to delay this post until today. Anyway, it is time to take a look at the Atlantic, the first since the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic remains mostly quiet, with the exception of an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, which is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The National Hurricane Center mentioned the…

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Beatriz dissipates inland Mexico, responsible for three fatalities; regeneration in Gulf of Mexico not expected

Beatriz dissipates inland Mexico, responsible for three fatalities; regeneration in Gulf of Mexico not expected

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Tropical Storm Beatriz made landfall Thursday afternoon in the Mexican state of Oaxaca around 4:00 PM local time. This morning, Beatriz rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, dissipating by 10:00 AM CDT. Beatriz at landfall was estimated to have maximum winds of at least 40 knots (45 mph) along with a minimum pressure of 1002 millibars, based on a ship report. This makes Beatriz the strongest storm so far of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz has already been…

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Special Update: Tropical Depression Two-E upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz based on ASCAT data

Special Update: Tropical Depression Two-E upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz based on ASCAT data

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At 1:00 PM CDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Two-E in the East Pacific to Tropical Storm Beatriz. This was based on a 15:43 UTC ASCAT pass that showed a few vectors with winds near 40 knots (45 mph). On this basis, the intensity was increased to 40 knots (45 mph) with a minimum pressure of 1004 millibars. This ties Beatriz with May’s Tropical Storm Adrian as the strongest storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz…

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