A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands was designated Invest 95L early Sunday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm this week.

Forecast for 95L

As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 95L was centered near 10.4°N 47.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 25 knots (30 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. 95L has become slightly better organized during the past few hours, with convection increasing to the west of the center. Moderate easterly wind shear of about 10-15 knots is currently affecting 95L. The shear is expected to drop overnight and remain fairly low, less than 10 knots, for the next two days or so. Sea surface temperatures are warm, about 28°C (82.4°F), and relative humidity values are around 65-70%.  These conditions are marginally favorable for development, and 95L has the possibility to organize into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. By Wednesday, wind shear is expected to begin to increase rapidly as 95L emerges into the Caribbean, and will likely weaken or even dissipate 95L by that time. The NHC currently gives 95L a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days.

Global models mostly show some limited development of 95L, but it may not be able to close off a well-defined circulation. The 18z GFS and GFS-Para runs, as well as the 12z CMC run, show some slight development of 95L. The 12z UKMET and ECMWF models do not predict any development. Regardless of development, the Windward Islands and Barbados should monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce tropical storm conditions regardless of whether it develops a well-defined circulation or not. The NHC has scheduled an Air Force Hunter Aircraft to visit 95L tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.

I will be back for another post tomorrow, where I will discuss 95L as well as the other systems in the Eastern Pacific, which is quite busy with Hurricane Fernanda, Invest 97E, Invest 98E and another area of interest.  There is also another system in the Atlantic east of Invest 95L that some models, such as the UKMET and GFS-Parallel have been hinting at slight development.