After Tropical Storm Don opened up into a tropical wave late Tuesday night, the Atlantic basin has gone quiet. Invest 96L is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and has been removed from the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook. Another quiet period looks likely in the Atlantic basin, perhaps for as long as a few weeks. On the flip side, the Eastern Pacific remains very active, with three active tropical cyclones and two other systems that could into tropical cyclones. The Eastern Pacific averages three to four tropical cyclones in July, compared to one in the Atlantic.

Fernanda weakening, not expected to impact Hawaii as a tropical cyclone

Hurricane Fernada, the strongest and longest-lived storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season so far, is slowly reaching its end, as it is now a category 1 hurricane and expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight. As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Fernanda was centered near 17.7°N 136.3°W and was moving west-northwest at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 985 mb. Fernanda is currently over sea surface temperatures of below 25°C (77°F), and wind shear is expected to increase to over 20 knots during the next 24 hours. This should cause Fernanda to continue to weaken, and the official NHC forecast predicts Fernanda will become a remnant low by Sunday. When Fernanda crosses 140°W, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) will take over advisories.

The latest model guidance has been trending that Fernanda will pass to the North of the Hawaiian Islands as a remnant low. What is left of Fernanda may bring some light showers to the Hawaiian Islands, but the chances of Fernanda making a direct landfall as a tropical cyclone are now very low. Regardless, the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Fernanda.

Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E expected to interact

Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E are expected to interact with each other in the Eastern Pacific later this week, and the stronger Greg is predicted by most models to be the dominant cyclone. Neither Greg nor Eight-E are imminent threats to land at this time.

As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Greg was centered near 14.3N 112.7W, and was moving west at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Greg has the opportunity to strengthen a little this week, possibly into a low-end hurricane, as it is expected to be in an environment of low wind shear.

As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Eight-E was centered near  14.1N 121.7W, and was moving west-southwest at about 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. Eight-E is a very sheared cyclone, and is likely to open up into a trough of low pressure as it gets pulled in to the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg. Eight-E is not expected to become Tropical Storm Hilary, but another system has a high likelihood of doing so.

Two other systems could develop in East Pacific, 97W likely to become first typhoon of 2017

In addition to Greg and Eight-E, there are two systems that have the possibility of development in the Eastern Pacific. The first one is a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of Mexico, and it is likely to develop into a tropical depression during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward into a more favorable environment. The NHC gives this system a 50 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance of development within five days. There is also another large area of disturbed weather moving into the Eastern Pacific from Central America, and the NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 40 percent chance of development within five days. The next two names on the East Pacific naming list are Hilary and Irwin.

In the Western Pacific, Invest 97W is likely to become the first typhoon of the season as it transitions into a tropical cyclone. The GFS and ECMWF models both develop 97W into a typhoon by early next week.

I will be back tomorrow for an update on all of these systems.