In the Western Pacific, the tropics remain very active with three active tropical cyclones. Typhoon Noru is changing little in intensity as it spins out in the open Western Pacific.  Tropical Storm Kulap is weakening, and is likely to be absorbed by Noru later this week. Tropical Storm Sonca is moving into the Gulf of Tonkin and is expected to make landfall in central Vietnam.

Noru likely to spin over the open Pacific for over a week

Typhoon Noru weakened slightly this morning, but has restrengthened during the past few hours as an eye is beginning to appear. As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, Noru was centered near 25.6°N 156.6°E. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 85 knots (100 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 964 mb. This is equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph). Noru is currently moving east-southeastward, but is expected to turn to the north and eventually west by Wednesday as it interacts with Tropical Storm Kulap. Noru has the chance to strengthen a little more during the next couple of days, before weakening is likely to occur later this week.

Kulap weakening as it begins to interact with Noru

A small Tropical Storm Kulap is gradually being pulled into the circulation of the larger Typhoon Noru, and has begun to weaken today. As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, Kulap was centered near 32.9°N 156.6°E. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 995 mb. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph). Kulap has undergone an interesting transition the past few days from a large subtropical cyclone to a small tropical cyclone. It should not be around for much longer, though.

Sonca headed for Vietnam, second Vietnam tropical storm landfall in two weeks

Tropical Storm Sonca has taken a much farther south trajectory than global models originally predicted, and is currently located over the extreme southern Gulf of Tonkin as it tracks westward towards Vietnam. As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, Sonca was centered near 16.7°N 108.6°E. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 993 mb. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph). Sonca is expected to make landfall near the city of Hue Tuesday morning. Significant strengthening seems unlikely before landfall due to Sonca’s proximity to land. Sonca should be well inland by tomorrow evening and is expected to dissipate inland Laos.

In the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary strengthened into a hurricane this morning and is expected to continue to intensify tonight and into tomorrow. Tropical Storm Irwin is also close to hurricane strength this evening, while Tropical Storm Greg is beginning to slowly weaken far from land. The Atlantic remains quiet, with no areas of interest on the Tropical Weather Outlook, although there are some indications on global models that a tropical wave could develop in the deep Atlantic tropics by early next week. I will discuss the East Pacific in more detail more in tomorrow’s post, with the possibility of Fujiwhara interaction between Hilary and Irwin.