A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has the potential to develop into the next Atlantic tropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward at about 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within five days.

The wave is currently accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the short term, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is located over the Atlantic basin, and this should limit the development of organized deep convection. However, as the suppressed Kelvin Wave begins to move out of the Atlantic by this weekend, conditions could become more favorable for slow development. Wind shear is currently light to moderate (less than 15 knots), but there is a large amount of Saharan dust to the north of the wave. The 18z Wednesday GFS and 12z Wednesday ECMWF model runs did not predict this wave will develop into a tropical cyclone during the next five days. However, the 12z Wednesday UKMET and CMC models offered some support for development in the short range, and there was also some modest ensemble support from the EPS and GEFS. By Day 10, both the GFS and ECMWF model runs predicted a strong tropical wave could be nearing the Lesser Antilles. Conditions in the western Atlantic could be more conducive for development, and this wave is worth watching in the long range. Any development in the short range should be slow to occur, and I highly doubt we will see any significant development for the next week at least.

This wave is likely an indicator of the very beginning of the active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, which usually begins in mid-August. However, meteorologists have been predicting a possible tropical cyclone outbreak over the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) beginning in the second week of August as a supportive Kelvin Wave passes through the Atlantic basin. This will likely bring the first hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season if it verifies.

I only give this wave a 10 percent chance of developing within the next five days, but I give a 40 percent chance that it will develop within the next two weeks as it will likely take a long, slow track across the Atlantic, where it could encounter more favorable conditions in the western part of the basin. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Emily. Tomorrow I will be back with an update on Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific, which are still expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction.