The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave for development over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) has seen a total of eight disturbances so far monitored by the NHC – significantly more than the only one each in 2014, 2015 and 2016. The NHC gives this tropical wave, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. This wave is expected to merge with another wave moving off the west African coast this evening, and could develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. While wind shear is expected to remain light for the next several days, dry air will likely limit significant development, at least in the short term. Although the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs do not show much development of this system, the 12z Saturday CMC and UKMET runs as well as a few GEFS and EPS ensemble members do develop it, and strengthen it as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. I personally believe that development will be very gradual, if it occurs at all, and I agree with the NHC’s 20 percent chance of development within five days. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Emily.

Little has changed in the East Pacific with Hilary and Irwin, but they are no longer expected to merge into a single system. Typhoon Nesat made landfall earlier today, and has now moved inland into Southeastern China. I will be back for another post tomorrow.