Invest 98L rapidly developed a small well-defined circulation as it separated from a cold front early Monday, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Six at 6:00 a.m. EDT this morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT, Six was upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily based on Doppler radar velocity data. Emily has since made landfall on Anna Maria Island, Florida at 10:45 a.m. EDT this morning. The cyclone was centered near 27.5°N 82.7°W, and was moving eastward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were estimated at 40 knots (45 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb.  Persistent deep convection has developed over Emily’s center, but most of the convective activity is south of the center due to some moderate shear. The primary threat with Emily is expected to be heavy rains, but a few isolated tornadoes are possible. Isolated waterspouts are also possible along the coastal waters of Southwestern Florida. A tropical storm warning is currently in effect from Anclote River to Bonita Beach, Florida.

Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight as it moves inland over Florida. The small cyclone is then expected to emerge into the western Atlantic early tomorrow morning. If Emily survives Florida, which is expected to occur, some slight restrengthening is then possible as Emily moves northeastward along the Gulf Stream, where sea surface temperatures are near 28°C (82.4°F) and wind shear is light to moderate at 10-15 knots. The official NHC forecast expects Emily to restrengthen to 45 mph, but I think Emily could strengthen a little more than this if its small circulation survives Florida intact. Emily is not likely to become a hurricane, though. The official NHC forecast predicts Emily to dissipate by late Friday, but it could occur a little sooner than this. Although nearly all of the model guidance keeps Emily away from the United States East Coast, rip currents will be possible along the coast through this weekend.

Emily is the fifth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, the earliest fifth named storm since Franklin in 2005, which was named on July 11. The average fifth named storm for the Atlantic does not form until August 31 on average. Emily is also the second Atlantic named storm to form in the month of July, the first July with two or more Atlantic named storms since 2013. I will be back for a new post late tonight or tomorrow.