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Month: July 2017

The Pacific Seven: Tropical Cyclone Outbreak across the North Pacific, Atlantic remains quiet

The Pacific Seven: Tropical Cyclone Outbreak across the North Pacific, Atlantic remains quiet

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While the Atlantic basin remains quiet, the Pacific has exploded with a total of seven tropical cyclones active this evening, although all are fairly weak. Two are in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Nine-E. One is in the Central Pacific – Tropical Storm Fernanda, which was previously a powerful Category 4 hurricane last week. Four are in the Western Pacific: Tropical Storms Noru and Kulap as well as Tropical Depressions 08W and 10W. A possible eighth…

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Atlantic once again becomes quiet; five systems in the East Pacific

Atlantic once again becomes quiet; five systems in the East Pacific

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After Tropical Storm Don opened up into a tropical wave late Tuesday night, the Atlantic basin has gone quiet. Invest 96L is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and has been removed from the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook. Another quiet period looks likely in the Atlantic basin, perhaps for as long as a few weeks. On the flip side, the Eastern Pacific remains very active, with three active tropical cyclones and two other systems that…

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Rare event for July: Four simultaneous tropical cyclones in Atlantic and East Pacific

Rare event for July: Four simultaneous tropical cyclones in Atlantic and East Pacific

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On Tuesday, a rare event occurred for the earliest time since 1997: four tropical cyclones were simultaneously active in the National Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility (Atlantic and East Pacific). Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg, Tropical Depression Eight-E, and Tropical Storm Don were all simultaneously active Tuesday afternoon, but Tropical Storm Don has likely degenerated into an open tropical wave. The three East Pacific storms should not be a threat to land. Tropical Storm Don likely now an open wave…

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Tropical Storm Don forms in Atlantic, East Pacific remains active

Tropical Storm Don forms in Atlantic, East Pacific remains active

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Invest 95L quickly developed into Tropical Storm Don Monday afternoon east of the Windward Islands, continuing the fast start to the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter identified a small but well-defined low-level circulation. Don is the fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season; the average date for the formation of the fourth named storm is not until August 23.  In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E has developed into Tropical Depression Seven-E, which has…

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Invest 95L in Atlantic could develop into a weak tropical cyclone near the Windward Islands

Invest 95L in Atlantic could develop into a weak tropical cyclone near the Windward Islands

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A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands was designated Invest 95L early Sunday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm this week. Forecast for 95L As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 95L was centered near 10.4°N 47.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 25 knots (30 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. 95L has become slightly better…

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Fernanda weakens slightly, Tropical Storm Talas forms in South China Sea, three areas of interest in Atlantic and East Pacific

Fernanda weakens slightly, Tropical Storm Talas forms in South China Sea, three areas of interest in Atlantic and East Pacific

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Aside from Hurricane Fernanda, which has weakened slightly from yesterday, the global tropics have lit up today with several systems. In the Atlantic, a trough of low pressure has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Windward Islands by Tuesday. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Talas has developed over the South China Sea, and is likely to strengthen slightly over the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E is likely…

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Fernanda rapidly intensifies as expected, now a Category 4 hurricane in the deep Pacific tropics; 97E may develop

Fernanda rapidly intensifies as expected, now a Category 4 hurricane in the deep Pacific tropics; 97E may develop

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Hurricane Fernanda rapidly intensified last night into today to become the strongest tropical cyclone of 2017 so far in the Northern Hemisphere. Fernanda is now a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale – the first of such this year. Fernanda was able to rapidly intensify over very favorable conditions, including light wind shear, a moist environment and very warm sea surface temperatures. Some slight additional intensification is possible before eyewall replacement cycles will likely cause fluctuations in intensity…

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Fernanda becomes a hurricane, expected to rapidly intensify

Fernanda becomes a hurricane, expected to rapidly intensify

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Tropical Storm Fernanda strengthened into the third hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season Thursday afternoon, and is likely entering a period of rapid intensification in very favorable conditions. Fernanda is expected to become the second major hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season, and could pose a long-range threat to Hawaii. The Atlantic remains quiet, with no tropical cyclone development expected in the short term. Forecast for Fernanda As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Thursday, Fernanda was…

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Tropical Storm Fernanda forms in East Pacific, likely to become a strong hurricane

Tropical Storm Fernanda forms in East Pacific, likely to become a strong hurricane

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Tuesday evening, Invest 96E was classified as Tropical Depression Six-E over the Eastern Pacific. Today, Six-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Fernanda, the sixth named storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season.  The average formation date of the sixth named storm in the Eastern Pacific is July 30, which means that the start of the 2017 season has been above average. Fernanda is likely to become a hurricane over the open Pacific waters by this weekend as it continues on a…

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Atlantic likely about to become quiet, East Pacific likely to get active with Invest 96E

Atlantic likely about to become quiet, East Pacific likely to get active with Invest 96E

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The area of focus for tropical cyclone activity for the next two weeks (and possibly the rest of the month) is going to be the Eastern Pacific, with Invest 96E a possible long range Hawaii threat. The remnants of Tropical Depression Four have lost organization since yesterday and regeneration has become very unlikely. In addition, Saharan Dust and a Suppressed Kelvin Wave is expected to limit any development of African tropical waves in the near future. East Pacific: Eugene continues…

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