Hurricane Franklin made landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz around 1:00 a.m. CDT as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (85 mph) and a minimum pressure of 988 mb. Franklin’s circulation quickly dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico. However, the mid-level remnant energy of Franklin has a medium chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone over the Eastern Pacific, but if regeneration does occur, the new storm should be short-lived. Invest 99L remains active over the Atlantic, and is currently given a medium chance by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to develop into a tropical cyclone over the subtropical western Atlantic Ocean.

Remnants of Hurricane Franklin likely to regenerate over the Eastern Pacific, but should not last long

At 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Thursday, what was formerly Hurricane Franklin degenerated into remnant low after visible satellite images confirmed that the cyclone’s surface circulation had dissipated. Since then, the remnants of Franklin have continued to lose organization. However, the NHC gives the remnants of Franklin a 50 percent chance of redevelopment during both the next 48 hours and five days as they emerge into the Eastern Pacific. The 18z Thursday GFS model run, as well as the 12z Thursday ECMWF and CMC model runs, predicted that the remnants of Franklin could redevelop south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The 12z Thursday UKMET model run did not predict any development. All of the models that predicted development that the system would remain very weak. Should the remnants of Franklin regenerate into a named storm, it would be named Jova. Since Franklin’s surface circulation dissipated over Mexico, it would not retain its name if a new surface circulation developed.

Franklin was the first hurricane to make landfall in Veracruz since Hurricane Karl in 2010. So far, no direct fatalities have been reported in associated with Franklin.

Invest 99L fighting wind shear, still has a chance to develop this weekend

Invest 99L – a trough of low pressure located northeast of the Lesser Antilles – has changed little in organization today overall. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 99L was centered near 21.0°N 62.0°W and was moving west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1014 mb. NHC gives 99L a 20 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days. Deep convection has waxed and waned with 99L all day, but has struggled to consolidate around the poorly defined circulation center due to moderate wind shear of about 20 knots. The shear is expected to decrease tomorrow through early Sunday to below 20 knots, and this may provide a narrow window for 99L to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, the shear is expected to increase again on Sunday to over 20 knots, and this could suppress development after that time. 99L is expected to remain in a fairly dry environment for the next several days as well, with mid-level relative humidity values expected to be near 50 percent, and this could arrest development. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be warm enough for development, near 29°C (84.2°F). The 12z Thursday ECMWF and UKMET model runs, as well as EPS ensemble members supported some limited development of 99L,but most of these models predicted that 99L would remain a tropical depression at most. If 99L does develop, I suspect it will be very weak and will likely struggle to intensify due to shear and dry air. It may not even become a named storm if it does develop. If it does defy the odds and become a named storm, it would be named Gert.

Elsewhere in the tropics

The global tropics are mostly quiet, with no tropical cyclones currently active globally. However, there are two additional areas of interest not mentioned earlier – one in the Atlantic and one in the Eastern Pacific – that could develop into a tropical cyclone. An elongated area of low pressure located off the east coast of Florida is given a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours and five days by the NHC. No reliable global models develop this system, and significant development is not expected.

In the Eastern Pacific, another separate area of low pressure is expected to form south of Mexico by early next week. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, as all 3 reliable models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET – show development. NHC give this system a near zero percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days. If this system intensifies to a named storm, it would be named Jova or Kenneth, depending on if the remnants of Franklin regenerate into a named storm.

Early next week, a tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa, and will need to be watched for development as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches. Several EPS ensemble members predicted development of this wave, but the operational run has yet to show significant development.

I will be back tomorrow with another update on the tropics.