The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have changed little in organization today, but are likely to regenerate, either over the Gulf of Honduras or Bay of Campeche. Aside from Harvey, Invest 92L east of the Bahamas has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days over the western Atlantic Ocean. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kenneth rapidly intensified into a hurricane this morning, and is now likely going to become a category 3 major hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward to northwestward across the open Pacific.

Remnants of Harvey not well organized right now, but likely to regenerate

Thunderstorm activity has decreased with the remnants of Harvey located over the central Caribbean Sea this afternoon and evening during the diurnal convective minimum, but is likely to rebuild overnight, and Harvey could regenerate into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland into Belize on Tuesday. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, the remnants of Harvey were centered near 14.9°N 78.4°W, and were moving westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives Harvey’s remnants a 50 percent chance of redevelopment within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey’s remnants Sunday afternoon, and did not find a well-defined circulation. At the moment, Harvey is an open tropical wave, most likely due to its fast forward speed. Harvey is likely to slow down from about 20 mph to less than 15 mph by early Tuesday when it approaches the coast of Belize. Harvey is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Although global models show very little redevelopment of Harvey before the Yucatan, virtually all global models regenerate Harvey into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche. Harvey’s remnants are expected to remain over light wind shear, less than 10 knots, for the next five days, which favors development. Ex-Harvey is located over warm sea surface temperatures of near 28.5°C (83.3°F), and these sea surface temperatures are expected to increase slightly as Ex-Harvey moves into the Gulf of Honduras and eventually the Bay of Campeche. The only limiting factor with Harvey after it slows down is its expected land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. I expect Harvey to become a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane over the Bay of Campeche, and will likely make landfall somewhere between Veracruz, Mexico and Brownsville, Texas. I believe a Mexico landfall is far more likely than a South Texas landfall.

92L still could develop

A broad trough of low pressure located about 100 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, designated Invest 92L, has a medium chance to develop over the next five days. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 92L was centered near 22.8°N 70.5°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1014 mb. The NHC gives 92L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days. Wind shear around 92L is expected to remain low to moderate (around 10-15 knots) over the next five days, along with sea surface temperatures a warm 29-30°C (84.2-86°F) and a moderately moist environment (mid-level relative humidity values around 50-60 percent). These conditions are somewhat favorable for development, and 92L could develop near Florida, over the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico, or over the Western Atlantic. The 12z Sunday UKMET and CMC model runs developed 92L near Florida, while the ECMWF and GFS models did not. If 92L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Irma.

Kenneth rapidly intensifies over the Eastern Pacific into a major hurricane

As of 8:00 p.m. PDT (11:00 p.m EDT) Sunday, Hurricane Kenneth was centered near 16.8°N 129.1°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 100 knots (115 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 964 mb. This makes Kenneth a category 3 major hurricane, the third major hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Kenneth has rapidly intensified during the day, with an eye clearing out surrounded by a ring of cold cloud tops. Although wind shear is expected to remain light, Kenneth could strengthen a little more tonight (possibly into a category 4 hurricane) before it is expected to cross the 26°C (78.8°F) isotherm in about 24 hours, and weakening should begin quickly thereafter. Kenneth should continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward into cooler waters over then open Pacific, and should become a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, if not sooner. Kenneth is no threat to any land areas.

I will be back tomorrow for another post.