The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have not become much better organized today, and are unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone prior to crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, Harvey’s remnants are expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, and are expected to continue on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the Gulf of Mexico, and Harvey could strike Northern Mexico, Texas, or perhaps even Louisiana as a strong tropical storm or hurricane late this week. However, it is too soon to determine the exact track that Harvey will take or how strong Harvey will become. Aside from Harvey, Invest 92L still could develop over the western Atlantic later this week, and Hurricane Kenneth has begun to slowly weaken in the Eastern Pacific.

Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate by Wednesday, likely to strengthen over the western Gulf

As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, the remnants of Harvey were centered near 18.2°N 87.0°W, and were moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives Harvey’s remnants a 70 percent chance of redevelopment within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance within five days. Harvey has been unable to develop a well-defined circulation prior to crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, which is expected to occur tomorrow. It is unlikely that Harvey will be able to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula; however, the Yucatan Peninsula can sometimes help weaker systems tighten up their circulation. It is possible this could occur with ex-Harvey, and Harvey is likely to regenerate into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Nearly all global models continue to predict that Harvey will regenerate over the Gulf.

The future track and intensity of Harvey remains very uncertain since a well-defined center of circulation has not yet formed. However, today, models have trended much farther north compared to yesterday, and the chances are increasing that Harvey could pose a possible threat to Texas or even Louisiana. Harvey is expected to be in an environment of light wind shear (less than 10 knots), with sea surface temperatures a very warm 30°C (86°F) and mid-level relative humidity values somewhat favorable, around 65 percent. Global models predict modest intensification with Harvey over the Gulf, and predict that Harvey will likely be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane at landfall. It is way too soon to know exactly where landfall will occur, and how strong Harvey will be, but right now, it appears very likely that we will be tracking a tropical cyclone over the Western Gulf late this week. Residents from Veracruz, Mexico all the way northeastward to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of ex-Harvey.

92L still could develop along the East Coast

As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 92L was centered near 25.5°N 76.5°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1013 mb. The NHC gives 92L a 20 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days. Some slight development of this system is possible as it turns to the northwest and eventually northeast off the United States East Coast. Moderate wind shear of over 20 knots is likely to inhibit significant development of this system, and I do not really see it being much more than a rainmaker for Florida and perhaps the East Coast. The 12z Monday ECMWF model run and the 18z Monday GFS run develop 92L into a broad, sheared system by the weekend. The UKMET model did not show development. If 92L develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Irma.

Hurricane Kenneth beginning to weaken over the Eastern Pacific

Hurricane Kenneth peaked as a category 4 hurricane over the Eastern Pacific this morning with maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (130 mph) and an estimated minimum pressure of 952 mb. Since then, the hurricane has weakened, with the eye no longer being visible in infrared imagery. As of 8:00 p.m. PDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Kenneth was centered near 19.2°N 132.1°W, and was moving northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 90 knots (105 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 969 mb. Kenneth should continue to weaken as it moves north-northwestward into cooler waters, and should become a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, if not sooner. Kenneth is no threat to land.

I will be back tomorrow with another post.