The remnants of Harvey regenerated into a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning after convective organization improved and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed the presence of a closed, but broad, circulation. Harvey has become a little better organized throughout the day, with its central pressure falling a little while winds have remained steady. Harvey likely will not strengthen much during the next 12-24 hours due to its current broad structure, but by late tomorrow and on Friday, conditions could be favorable for a period of more rapid intensification to occur. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has said that Harvey is likely to become a hurricane before landfall in Southeastern Texas, and a Hurricane Watch has been put into effect from North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas, as well as North of San Luis Pass to High Island. The center of Harvey is likely to pass near Corpus Christi very early on Saturday morning. After landfall, Harvey is likely to move slowly and erratically for a few days, increasing the flooding potential.

As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Harvey was centered near 21.9°N 92.6°W, and was moving northwestward very slowly at 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph) and the minimum pressure was 1002 mb, based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Harvey is currently not very well organized, as it lacks banding features or a well-defined central dense overcast. The center of circulation is also somewhat elongated. However, it has become a little more circular and tighter than earlier this morning, and should continue to do so over the next 24 hours. Strengthening should be limited for the next 12-24 hours as noted above. However, on Friday, conditions should favor quicker strengthening due to expected low wind shear (less than 10 knots), a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere (about 65 percent), and very warm sea surface temperatures of about 30°C (86°F). With the expected favorable conditions, Harvey is likely to become a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, although this a little above most of the intensity guidance.  The primary threat with Harvey will be heavy rain and flooding, due to its anticipated slow movement in the Day 3-5 range as steering currents are expected to be weak.

I will be back with another post about Harvey tomorrow.