Just a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Harvey rapidly intensified today into the third hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Harvey is likely to intensify into a category 3 major hurricane before its expected landfall in Texas early Saturday, and is likely to end the 12-year drought of no major hurricanes making landfall in the United States.

As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Harvey was centered near 25.2°N 94.6°W, and was moving northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with a minimum pressure of 973 mb, based on the reconnaissance aircraft data. This intensity could be a little conservative, as a recent reconnaissance aircraft pass suggests the winds have increased and the pressure has fallen a little. Harvey has not yet formed a well-defined eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery, and the earlier rapid intensification has slowed a little for now, possibly as a result of some dry air. Conditions are very favorable for continued intensification, however, and Harvey is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane by tomorrow morning. Weakening should begin after landfall occurs near Corpus Christi, Texas during the early morning hours on Saturday. After that time, Harvey’s track remains uncertain, and Harvey is likely to move very slowly northeastward over Texas, dumping heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of up to 15-25 inches are possible along Harvey’s path. Residents of Eastern Texas should evacuate if possible.

There are many watches and warnings currently active for the Texas coast. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Mansfield to High Island Texas. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from North of Sargent to High Island Texas, as well as South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico.

Some statistics for Harvey:

• Harvey is the third hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The average third hurricane of an Atlantic hurricane season forms on September 9, so Harvey is over 2 weeks ahead of schedule.
• Harvey is the strongest hurricane to form over the Gulf of Mexico by central pressure since Isaac in 2012. No major hurricanes have formed in the Gulf of Mexico since Karl in 2010.
• The last hurricane to make landfall in Texas was Ike in 2008, which made landfall as a category 2 hurricane. The last major (category 3+) hurricane to make landfall in Texas was Bret in 1999.
• The last major (category 3+) hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Hurricane Wilma in the hyperactive 2005 season which made landfall in Florida. This record-breaking U.S. major hurricane landfall drought will likely be ending if Harvey rapidly intensifies before landfall as expected.

I will be back tomorrow for another post on Harvey.