CYCLONIC FURY

Tropical Storm Irma rapidly intensified into a category 3 major hurricane Thursday afternoon after it develop a small eye. Irma is likely to remain a strong hurricane for the next week at least, and is likely to pass near or just north of the Leeward Islands by the middle of next week as a strong hurricane.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Irma was centered near 17.8°N 35.6°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 100 knots (115 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 967 mb. This makes Irma a category 3 hurricane, and the second major hurricane of the season. Irma is the first major hurricane to form in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) since Danny of the 2015 season. It should be noted that a major hurricane this far east in the Atlantic is somewhat unusual.

Irma’s rapid intensification has stopped, or at least paused, for now. The hurricane is likely to maintain its current intensity, or perhaps even weaken slightly, during the next couple days as it moves over slightly cooler water. The possibility of eyewall replacement cycles also complicates the intensity forecast. By Saturday, Irma should begin to move west-southwestward back into warmer waters, and more strengthening is likely at this time. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts Irma will be east of the Leeward Islands as a 120-knot (140 mph) category 4 hurricane next Tuesday. It is not out of the question that Irma reaches category 5 strength east of the Antilles, but it is rare to see storms strengthen into a category 5 in this portion of the Atlantic. After that time, the models are split on where Irma will go. The GFS is farther north and predicts that Irma will pass very close to the United States East Coast, before a possible landfall in the Northeast. The ECMWF is much farther south and predicts that Irma could pose a threat to South Florida in 10 days or so. It is still too early to determine if Irma will impact the United States, but it is definitely a strong possibility. Irma is no imminent threat at this time.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.