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Month: August 2017

Harvey expected to regenerate over the Western Gulf of Mexico, 92L still could develop, Kenneth beginning to weaken

Harvey expected to regenerate over the Western Gulf of Mexico, 92L still could develop, Kenneth beginning to weaken

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have not become much better organized today, and are unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone prior to crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, Harvey’s remnants are expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, and are expected to continue on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the Gulf of Mexico, and Harvey could strike Northern Mexico, Texas, or perhaps even Louisiana as a strong…

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Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate, 92L could still develop, Hurricane Kenneth rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific

Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate, 92L could still develop, Hurricane Kenneth rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have changed little in organization today, but are likely to regenerate, either over the Gulf of Honduras or Bay of Campeche. Aside from Harvey, Invest 92L east of the Bahamas has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days over the western Atlantic Ocean. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kenneth rapidly intensified into a hurricane this morning, and is now likely going to become a category 3…

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Harvey opens up into a wave over the central Caribbean

Harvey opens up into a wave over the central Caribbean

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Tropical Storm Harvey struggled today, weakening into a tropical depression earlier this afternoon. Since then, a reconnaissance aircraft investigated the storm and was unable to close off a well-defined center of circulation.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Harvey to a remnant low at 11:00 p.m. EDT. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, the Remnants of Harvey were centered near 14.3°N 71.8°W, and was moving westward at about 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated…

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Harvey remains disorganized over the Eastern Caribbean, but could strengthen later, 92L becoming less likely to develop

Harvey remains disorganized over the Eastern Caribbean, but could strengthen later, 92L becoming less likely to develop

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Tropical Storm Harvey has changed little in organization since yesterday as it has dealt with moderate easterly wind shear, fast movement and dry mid-level air. The center of circulation is not particularly well defined, and significant strengthening is unlikely for the next day or two. However, conditions could become more favorable for strengthening as Harvey enters the western Caribbean Sea by early next week if it manages to avoid land interaction with the Honduras and Nicaragua.  The model guidance is…

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Gert now extratropical, Tropical Storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles, 92L likely to develop

Gert now extratropical, Tropical Storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles, 92L likely to develop

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Hurricane Gert transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday afternoon after its circulation became very elongated and became associated with frontal boundaries. As soon as Gert transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, however, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine developed into Tropical Storm Harvey east of the Windward Islands. Harvey is expected to approach the Windwards as a tropical storm, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the area. East of Harvey is Invest 92L, which has a high chance to…

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Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

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Hurricane Gert is likely peaking in intensity as a category 2 hurricane, the strongest storm of the season so far. Gert was able to develop a well-defined eye and strengthen at an unusually high latitude – the strongest hurricane so far north by wind speed since Alex in 2004. Gert should transition into an extratropical cyclone by early on Friday. There are three tropical disturbances across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) that have a chance to develop (including Invests…

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Gert becomes a hurricane, watching Invest 91L and another tropical wave behind it

Gert becomes a hurricane, watching Invest 91L and another tropical wave behind it

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Tropical Storm Gert strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season late Monday over the subtropical western Atlantic. Despite a rather unimpressive convective structure, microwave imagery indicates that Gert has nearly developed a closed eyewall. Gert is likely to strengthen some more over the next two days, possibly becoming a category 2 hurricane as it accelerates to the northeast. The average second hurricane in the Atlantic does not form until August 28, continuing the fast start to…

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TD Eight strengthens into Tropical Storm Gert, watching Invest 91L in eastern Atlantic

TD Eight strengthens into Tropical Storm Gert, watching Invest 91L in eastern Atlantic

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Tropical Depression Eight strengthened into Tropical Storm Gert Sunday afternoon, and is likely to strengthen to near hurricane strength by Tuesday as it turns northeastward into the mid-latitude Atlantic. Gert is the seventh named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and is unusually early for a “G” storm. Only three seasons since reliable records began in 1851 – 1936, 1995, and 2005 – had their seventh named storm form earlier. The average seventh named storm in the Atlantic does not…

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Tropical Depression Eight forms east of the Bahamas, Tropical Depression Jova struggling over the Eastern Pacific

Tropical Depression Eight forms east of the Bahamas, Tropical Depression Jova struggling over the Eastern Pacific

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The fast start to the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season continues. After nine days of being an invest, Invest 99L finally developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression Saturday evening. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located to the east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Eight is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and has the potential to strengthen to near hurricane strength along the Gulf…

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Invests 99L in Atlantic, 92E in Eastern Pacific could develop this weekend

Invests 99L in Atlantic, 92E in Eastern Pacific could develop this weekend

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Two investigative areas “invests” – one over the Atlantic (Invest 99L) and one over the Eastern Pacific (92E) have a good chance to develop into tropical depressions this weekend. 99L – an area of low pressure we have been tracking in the Atlantic for over a week – is expected to move into a more conducive environment for development this weekend as wind shear is expected to decrease. Invest 92E, associated with the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, is very…

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