Hurricane Jose has changed little in intensity the past two days, and remains a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as it begins to turn westward. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Max has rapidly developed and has a chance to become a hurricane prior to landfall in Mexico.
Status quo for Jose; likely to weaken very slowly over coming days
Rainbow loop of Hurricane Jose located over the Western Atlantic. (Source: NOAA)As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Jose was centered near 25.2°N 66.0°W, and was moving westward at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 985 mb. Jose has maintained a very similar structure for the past couple of days, with the center of circulation located in the northern edge of a mass of vigorous deep convection. Jose is expected to remain in wind shear of over 20 knots for the next several days, and the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts that Jose will slowly weaken into a tropical storm by Friday. However, it is not out of the question that Jose could maintain or eventually re-attain hurricane status later in the forecast period. Jose is expected to turn to the northwest on Thursday, and eventually will likely turn to the north-northeast this weekend. It does not appear likely that Jose will affect the Northeastern United States, although this possibility cannot be ruled out, considering the 12z Wednesday ECMWF model run predicted a landfall over the Mid-Atlantic region. It should be noted, however, that most of the model guidance, including over 80% of the EPS ensemble suite, predict that Jose will recurve out to sea between the United States and Bermuda. It appears highly unlikely that Jose will pose a threat to Florida or the Southeastern United States.
Max rapidly strengthening in East Pacific as it nears landfall in central Mexico
Rainbow loop of Tropical Storm Max located over the Eastern Pacific. (Source: NOAA)An area of low pressure developed into Tropical Depression Sixteen-E on Wednesday morning just off the western coast of Mexico, and has rapidly organized this evening into Tropical Storm Max. As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Max was centered near 16.3°N 101.1°W, and was moving east-northeast at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1001 mb. Max appears to have developed a small core, including a mid-level eye feature. This favors intensification, and Max is likely to be near or at hurricane strength at the time of landfall. A Hurricane Watch (and Tropical Storm Warning) is in effect from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. Max should quickly weaken after landfall and dissipate on Friday over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico.
Two new Atlantic tropical waves to watch
The NHC is monitoring two new tropical waves over the Atlantic for possible development. The first one is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and the NHC gives it a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 30 percent chance of development within five days. The second one is located over the western coast of Africa, and the NHC gives this wave a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. Gradual development is possible with both systems. The next two names on the Atlantic naming list are Lee and Maria.
