Hurricane Jose is slowly moving northward over the western Atlantic as a category 1 hurricane and does not appear likely to cause significant impacts in the Northeastern United States. Meanwhile, two new tropical storms were named in the Atlantic on Saturday – Lee and Maria. Lee is likely to not strengthen much, if at all, and should dissipate before having an opportunity to affect any land areas. However, newly formed Tropical Storm Maria is likely to pass through the central Lesser Antilles as a hurricane. With the formation of Maria, the thirteenth named storm of this season, 2017 now has exceeded the average number of named storms to form in an entire Atlantic hurricane season (12).

Jose likely to remain a category 1 hurricane for a few days; not likely to make landfall in New England

Hurricane Jose has changed little in intensity today. Moderate wind shear has limited it from strengthening into a classic-looking hurricane with a well-defined eye. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Jose was centered near 29.2°N 71.8°W and was moving northward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 973 mb. Jose is expected to continue its current northward motion through Tuesday or so, when it is likely to turn to the northeast. It appears as if chances of significant impacts in New England are decreasing, as most models are predicting the northeast turn to occur. However, some light impacts cannot can be ruled out such as beach erosion along the coast. Jose should begin to weaken by Tuesday or Wednesday as wind shear is expected to significantly increase, although baroclinic effects may slow the weakening rate.

Lee no threat

Tropical Depression Fourteen finally strengthened into Tropical Storm Lee Saturday morning, but has changed little in organization since then. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Lee was centered near 12.8°N 34.9°W and was moving westward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Lee is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong wind shear throughout the forecast period, and the shear is likely to increase further by Monday, which should result in Lee becoming a remnant low by Wednesday as it is expected to move west-northwestward into the open Atlantic. Lee is no threat to land.

Maria likely to strike the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane, too soon to determine if U.S. impacts will occur

A strong tropical wave developed into Tropical Storm Maria on Saturday afternoon east of the Lesser Antilles. Maria is the sixth named storm to develop over the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) of this very active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and could become the fourth major hurricane of the season by the middle of next week. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Maria was centered near 12.5°N 53.7°W and was moving westward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Maria is gradually becoming better organized, and is likely to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane prior to passing through the central Lesser Antilles late Monday or early Tuesday. Conditions are very favorable for Maria to strengthen, perhaps rapidly, with very warm sea surface temperatures of above 29°C (84.2°F), light wind shear of less than 10 knots, and a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere with relative humidity values over 60 percent. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches have already been issued for the entire Lesser Antilles island chain.  Maria is expected to then emerge into the Eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday where further strengthening is likely, and could directly impact Puerto Rico as a major hurricane. After that time, Maria is expected to continue moving west-northwestward or northwestward towards Hispaniola and the Bahamas. It is still way too soon to determine if Maria will impact the United States.