The Atlantic remains very active, with two simultaneous hurricanes once again (Jose and Maria). Hurricane Jose remains a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and is likely to slowly weaken during the next several days as it travels northward up the United States East Coast. Tropical Storm Maria became a hurricane on Sunday afternoon, and is likely to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane as it approaches the central Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Lee weakened to a Tropical Depression on Sunday and is expected to become a remnant low on Monday.

Jose maintaining intensity as a category 1 hurricane, rough surf and rip currents likely along Eastern U.S. this week

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Hurricane Jose was centered near 32.2°N 71.6°W and was moving northward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 80 knots (90 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 974 mb. Jose is likely to gradually weaken during the next couple of days as it moves northward into increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures. The weakening could become faster when Jose is expected to move away from the Gulf Stream by Tuesday, and Jose is expected to fall below hurricane intensity at this time. Although Jose is not expected to make a direct landfall along the Northeastern United States, direct impacts are still expected. Rough surf, beach erosion and deadly rip currents are possible along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States this week. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts, as tropical storm force winds cannot be ruled out since Jose is a large storm. Heavy rainfall is also likely in New England on Tuesday on Wednesday. Jose is likely to turn to the northeast on Tuesday, and possibly turn back southward on Wednesday. It is possible that the long range track of Jose could impact the future track of Hurricane Maria, although this is uncertain as of this time.

Lee weakening, no threat to land

Tropical Storm Lee has weakened to a tropical depression. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Lee was centered near 13.6°N 38.5°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. The center of Lee is partially exposed as wind shear and dry air has limited the cyclone from developing new central convection. These unfavorable conditions are likely to cause Lee to become a remnant low on Monday, and that’s what the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts what will happen with Lee.

Maria becomes a hurricane, likely to strengthen further

Tropical Storm Maria strengthened into the seventh hurricane of this very active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday afternoon. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Maria was centered near 14.2°N 58.4°W and was moving west-northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 979 mb. Maria is expected to be in a favorable environment for strengthening with warm water and light wind shear, and the NHC expects Maria to become the fourth major hurricane of the 2017 season by Monday evening as it passes through the Lesser Antilles.

Maria is likely to enter the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where further strengthening is expected. Maria will likely be a category 4 hurricane when it passes over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Serious impacts are expected throughout the Lesser Antilles, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued in the central and northern part of the Island chain. Maria is likely to remain south of the islands hardest hit by Hurricane Irma earlier this month. It is still too soon to determine if Maria will impact the United States.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.