Hurricane Maria explosively intensified from a category 1 hurricane on Sunday evening to a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday evening. On Monday morning, Maria developed a pinhole eye – and its winds doubled in a 24-hour doubled. This makes Maria the second category 5 hurricane of the 2017 season – making 2017 just one of six Atlantic hurricane seasons with more than one category 5 hurricane. At 9:35 p.m. AST, Maria made landfall in Dominica as a category 5 hurricane, becoming the first category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the island nation on record. This also makes 2017 the second Atlantic hurricane season on record, joining 2007, with two category 5 hurricanes making landfall at that intensity.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 15.5°N 61.4°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 140 knots (160 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 924 mb. The eye is slightly less distinct than a few hours ago, which means some slight weakening may have occurred over Dominica. Regardless, Maria remains a very powerful hurricane. Maria is likely to undergo intensity fluctuations during the next few days over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, with eyewall replacement cycles complicating the intensity forecast as they normally do with intense hurricanes.

Maria is expected to continue on its current west-northwestward motion for the next several days, and is expected to make landfall over Puerto Rico as a major hurricane. Land interaction with Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic will likely cause some weakening by late this week, however, the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts that Maria will remain a major hurricane during this time. It still remains too early to predict if Irma will impact the United States, although the model consensus currently suggests a turn out into the Atlantic is the most likely scenario as of this time.

I will be back tomorrow with a post on Maria, as well as Jose, which remains a category 1 hurricane over the western Atlantic.