Hurricane Maria became the tenth-strongest Atlantic hurricane by minimum central pressure on Tuesday evening, when its central pressure fell to 909 mb. This makes Maria the strongest Atlantic hurricane by pressure since Dean in 2007, and the strongest of the season (despite Irma having stronger maximum sustained winds of 185 mph). Maria is likely to make landfall in Eastern Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, unless some slight weakening takes place before landfall. Residents of Puerto Rico should have rushed their preparations to completion as landfall is likely on Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, in the western Atlantic, long-lived Hurricane Jose has finally weakened to a tropical storm. Jose has become the longest lived Atlantic tropical cyclone since Nadine in 2012.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Maria was centered near 17.3°N 64.7°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 150 knots (175 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 909 mb. Maria is likely near its peak intensity, as convective cloud tops have warmed slightly during the past couple hours. In addition, concentric eyewalls have been visible on radar, which indicates that an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) is likely starting. Maria is expected to move in its general west-northwestward direction through Thursday, when it is expected to turn more to the northwest as it passes east of Hispaniola. Maria should weaken during the next few days as it makes landfall in Puerto Rico and passes very close to the Dominican Republic. By the weekend, Maria should drop below major hurricane status as wind shear increases slightly and sea surface temperatures begin to cool. The most likely scenario is Maria turns out into the open Atlantic without impacting the United States, although it is still too soon to rule out a track closer to the United States East Coast.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Jose was centered near 37.9°N 70.8°W, and was moving northeastward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 973 mb. Jose is expected to move slowly northeastward, before eventually steering currents become weak and Jose is expected to turn back to the west. Moderate coastal flooding is possible along areas of the New England Coast during the next several days as Jose moves erratically. Jose has potential to create a weakness for Maria to recurve out into the open Atlantic without impacting the United States, although it remains too soon to determine how Jose will influence Maria’s track, if at all. Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone by late this week as it moves over much colder waters.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.