Hurricane Maria made landfall early Monday morning around 6:35 a.m. AST near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane. At the time of landfall, Maria’s maximum sustained winds were estimated at 135 knots (155 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 917 mb. Maria is the strongest hurricane to strike Puerto Rico since a hurricane in 1928. Maria weakened considerably over landfall, and is now a high-end category 2 hurricane. Maria could restrengthen a little during the next couple days as it moves away from land and remains in a favorable environment. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jose has continued to weaken over the Northwestern Atlantic, and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday, if not sooner.

Maria now a category 2 hurricane, but could restrengthen, U.S. threat unlikely

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 19.2°N 67.9°W, and was moving northwestward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 95 knots (110 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 959 mb. Maria remains a powerful hurricane with an eye visible on satellite, although the hurricane is not nearly as strong as it was prior to landfall. The land interaction with Puerto Rico likely disrupted Maria’s inner core structure, so significant intensification seems unlikely in the near future. However, some slight re-intensification, possibly into a major hurricane, is possible in about 24-48 hours. Maria is currently passing just east of the coast of the Dominican Republic, and is likely to pass just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands – which were hit hard by Hurricane Irma – on Friday. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for both the coastal Dominican Republic as well as the Turks and Caicos.

By the weekend, wind shear is expected to increase, while Maria begins to move over cooler waters partially due to the cold wake of Jose. Slow weakening is likely to begin by early next week as Maria continues to move northward. It seems very unlikely that Maria will pose a significant threat to the East Coast of the United States at this time. The model guidance is in fairly tight agreement that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will allow Maria to turn to the north-northeast or northeast by next Monday. It does not appear likely that Maria will pose a threat to the island of Bermuda, either. Even though a direct landfall appears unlikely, residents of the East Coast of the United States, Bermuda, and even Atlantic Canada should continue to monitor the progress of Maria.

Long-lived Jose likely to finally turn post-tropical by Friday or Saturday

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Jose was centered near 39.5°N 68.2°W, with an estimated minimum pressure of 982 mb. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 982 mb. Jose is slowly weakening over the cool waters of the Northwestern Atlantic off New England. Deep convection is slowly decreasing, but remains deep enough to keep Jose a tropical cyclone as of this time. Jose continues to produce tropical storm conditions in areas of coastal Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. Jose should continue to slowly weaken during the next few days, eventually becoming post-tropical by the weekend. However, what is left of Jose should make a sharp turn back to the west, where it should slowly spin down into a shallow low pressure area. Even though Jose is weakening, rough surf and swells remain possible along the United States East Coast for several days.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.