Hurricane Maria remains a category 3 hurricane over the western Atlantic, and is likely to pass just offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Wednesday before likely turning to the east-northeast on Thursday. Even though Maria is not likely to make a direct landfall, direct impacts are still likely along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Maria is not likely to have a significant impact over inland North Carolina, however, unless it takes a farther west track than anticipated. In addition to Maria, regenerated Tropical Storm Lee is likely to become a hurricane over the open Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Pilar has formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Maria still a major hurricane; likely to begin weakening in a couple days as it passes near North Carolina coast

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 27.0°N 72.5°W, and was moving northward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 100 knots (115 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 942 mb. Although data from a reconnaissance aircraft suggest that the 100-knot intensity may be a little generous, Dvorak estimates and the recent improvement in the convective organization of the hurricane resulted in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeping Maria as a major hurricane for this advisory. This means that 2017 has now surpassed the 2005 season in major hurricane days.

Maria is likely to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment for the next day or two while it traverses over warm waters. Some restrengthening is possible during this time, but I wouldn’t bet on it due to the low winds being observed by the reconnaissance aircraft data. By Tuesday, Maria is likely to begin weakening as shear increases slightly and it passes over the cold wake left behind by Hurricane Jose. Maria is likely to continue on its northward movement through Tuesday, before it is expected to sharply turn to the east-northeast around that time. It is unlikely that Maria will make landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. However, Maria is a large hurricane and is likely going to be close enough to the coast to result in some direct impacts in the region. Rough surf, rip currents, and beach erosion are possible along the East Coast of the United States for the next several days. As noted above, I do not think that inland North Carolina will see much, if any, impact from Maria. Regardless, residents of coastal North Carolina (especially the Outer Banks) as well as the Mid-Atlantic States should closely monitor the progress of Maria.

Regenerated Lee could become a hurricane by early next week

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee redeveloped into a tropical depression on Friday afternoon, and have continued to reorganize today. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Lee was centered near 31.9°N 50.1°W, and was moving south-southeastward at about 1 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. Lee has reached a new peak intensity as a very small storm, and is likely to become the eighth hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Lee is expected to be over marginal sea surface temperatures of about 27.5°C (81.5°F), while being embedded in an environment with wind shear less than 10 knots, for the next several days. This favors strengthening – possibly even rapid – intensification, and it is not out of the question that Lee could become a category 2 or even a category 3 hurricane by next week. Although Lee is likely to deal with dry mid-level air for the next several days, above-average instability should allow Lee to maintain its deep convection. Lee is no threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Pilar forms in East Pacific, likely to parallel the coast of Mexico

A low pressure system developed into Tropical Storm Pilar Saturday evening just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Pilar was centered near 18.7°N 105.3°W, and was moving northward at about 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. Pilar is likely to strengthen a little before it moves very close to the coast of Mexico. It is possible that Pilar could make landfall, but there is also a chance it could remain over the Gulf of California. Even if this occurs, increasing wind shear is likely to limit intensification after that time. The main threat with Pilar will be heavy rain.