The Atlantic basin now has no active tropical cyclones or disturbances being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This is the first time that has occurred since August 2 – 60 days ago. Even though the peak season has passed, it should be noted that the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. The Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30, and an average of 3 named storms form after this date, including 1-2 hurricanes. A major hurricane forms after October 1 in about half of all Atlantic hurricane seasons. It is unclear how long this lull in activity will last, as the ECMWF model is showing the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea or Eastern Gulf of Mexico in about a week or so.

In the Eastern Pacific, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Tuesday or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression may form by late week. The NHC gives this disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance of development within five days. If this disturbance becomes a tropical storm it will be named Ramon.

There are no tropical cyclones currently active throughout the globe. I will be back tomorrow with a feature story on a history of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the month of October.