A broad area of low pressure developed over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, and has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC gives 90L a 50 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within five days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to visit 90L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 90L was centered near 11.4°N 81.2°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. At present, 90L currently has limited shower and thunderstorm activity near the center, although the disturbance has been showing signs of cyclonic turning. 90L is likely to develop into a tropical depression soon – possibly as soon as Wednesday – and then track northward or north-northwestward. 90L could impact portions of Central America, such as Honduras and Nicaragua, as a tropical depression or storm later this week. After that point, 90L is likely to emerge into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, brushing or passing over the Yucatan Peninsula. 90L is then likely to emerge into the central Gulf of Mexico. All of the reliable global models – the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF – developed 90L into at least a tropical depression in their 12z Tuesday runs. The GFS and ECMWF models indicate the possibility that 90L could be near or at hurricane strength as it nears the Gulf Coast of the United States by Sunday. 90L is expected to be in a favorable environment for strengthening for the next several days, with low wind shear of less than 10 knots, very warm sea surface temperatures, and a very moist environment.

I will be back with another blog post tomorrow. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Nate.