A broad area of low pressure consolidated into Tropical Depression Sixteen Wednesday morning over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Nate by Thursday and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of Central America. The cyclone is then expected to continue moving northward into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, where strengthening appears likely if the cyclone can stay east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts that the cyclone will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and could make landfall near or at hurricane strength along the Northern Gulf Coast of the United States. In addition to Tropical Depression Sixteen, Tropical Storm Ramon has formed in the East Pacific, although it is not forecast to make landfall or strengthen significantly.

Tropical Depression Sixteen likely to strengthen over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, could become a hurricane

At 11:00 a.m. EDT, the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen, as satellite and microwave imagery indicates that a well-defined center of circulation has formed. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Depression Sixteen was centered near 12.2°N 81.9°W, and was moving northwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. The current intensity estimate of TD Sixteen is somewhat uncertain, and it is possible that the cyclone could be a little weaker or stronger than estimated. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the depression and should find a better estimate of the cyclone’s intensity.

The depression is currently located in a favorable environment for intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain fairly light, generally remaining less than 10 knots, with mid-level relative humidity values a very moist 80-85 percent and sea surface temperatures a very warm 30°C (86°F). This favors strengthening, and I personally think TD Sixteen could be a moderate to strong tropical storm as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. The official NHC forecast predicts a 40-knot (45 mph) landfall. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua northward to Punta Castilla, Honduras. Some weakening is likely while the cyclone passes over the terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. However, Sixteen is expected to emerge back into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Friday, and re-intensification is likely at that time as it tracks northward. The cyclone is expected to pass just east of or over the Northeastern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula, and this could cause the cyclone to weaken if it tracks farther west than anticipated. On Saturday, the cyclone is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico where the environment is expected to remain favorable for intensification, and the official NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it accelerates northward or north-northeastward in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone is likely to make landfall somewhere along the Northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday, likely near or at hurricane strength. The exact landfall location is uncertain, but the official NHC forecast sides more with the ECMWF model which depicts a Florida Panhandle landfall. In contrast, the GFS model solution is farther west, predicting a landfall in Louisiana. Residents of the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the progress of this depression. The cyclone is then likely to quickly become a post-tropical remnant low after landfall as it weakens inland by next Monday. However, heavy rains are likely throughout the entire Southeastern United States as a result of this cyclone.

Ramon forms over the Eastern Pacific

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Ramon rapidly developed Wednesday morning. Ramon is expected to change little in intensity throughout the next several days as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the Pacific Coast of Mexico. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Ramon was centered near 14.9°N 96.5°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Ramon is currently a poorly organized tropical cyclone, and it is expected that moderate to strong wind shear will limit much intensification. In fact, it is a distinct possibility that Ramon could dissipate during the next few days. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico, although a landfall is not expected. Heavy rain will be the primary threat from Ramon.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.