Tropical Storm Nate strengthened a little on Friday morning, although the cyclone still lacks an inner core. Nate is expected to keep strengthening, and could become a hurricane as it makes landfall in the United States Gulf Coast. Nate will most likely make landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Nate was centered near 18.7°N 85.0°W, and was moving north-northwestward at about 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 996 mb. Nate is likely to strengthen some this afternoon as it moves over the warm waters of the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, and could be near hurricane strength this evening as it passes over or just east of the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, near Cancun, Mexico. Nate is expected to be over warm waters for the next couple days, while shear is low and the mid-level environment is fairly moist. This generally favors strengthening. However, the cyclone currently lacks an inner wind core, as noted above. In addition, the surface circulation is somewhat broad. This should prevent any explosive or rapid intensification with Nate; however, Nate still could become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday or Sunday.  It should be noted that most of the dynamical and statistical models keep Nate below hurricane strength.

Several watches and warnings are in effect, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, and for the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Provence of Pinar del Rio and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Provence of the Isle of Youth. The Meteorological Service of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, including much of the states of Quintana Roo (including Cancun) and Yucatan.

Nate is likely to bring heavy rainfall and storm surge when it makes landfall. Life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. While it is very unlikely that Nate will be nearly as strong as storms like Harvey, Irma or Maria, significant impacts are still likely.

I will be back with another blog post tomorrow.