Tropical Storm Ophelia intensified into the tenth hurricane of the 2017 season on Wednesday afternoon, and continues to strengthen this evening. Additional strengthening is likely, and Ophelia could become a Category 2 hurricane on Thursday. Ophelia is likely to pass southeast of the Azores as a hurricane on Saturday, and then offshore Western Europe as an extratropical cyclone by Sunday and Monday. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has now featured ten hurricanes in a row – a feat that has not been matched in over a century.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ophelia was centered near 30.0°N 35.7°W, and was moving northeastward at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 986 mb. This evening, the appearance of Ophelia has improved, with the eye becoming a little more distinct and cloud tops in the eyewall cooling. It should be noted, however, that Ophelia may not be as strong as the satellite appearance would normally suggest since it is over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. Ophelia could strengthen a little more on Thursday – possibly into a Category 2 hurricane – while it remains in a low-shear water over marginally warm waters. However, on Friday, increasing shear and cooler waters should limit any additional intensification or cause a slow weakening trend to begin, and Ophelia is likely going to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone on Sunday, if not sooner. The center of Ophelia is expected to pass to the southeast of the Azores Islands on Saturday, and watches and warnings may be issued on Thursday if necessary. Ophelia is then expected to pass just offshore the coast of Western Europe as an extratropical cyclone, nearing the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday and Great Britain on Monday.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.