Hurricane Ophelia has continued to strengthened today, and is now a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical eastern Atlantic, a rare location for an Atlantic hurricane this intense. Ophelia is likely near or at its peak intensity, and a slow weakening trend is likely to begin tomorrow as it moves into a higher shear environment and waters cool. However, baroclinic forcing should allow Ophelia to retain hurricane-force winds through the weekend.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Ophelia was centered near 30.7°N 34.7°W, and was moving east-northeast at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 90 knots (105 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 970 mb. Ophelia has continued to strengthen this evening over marginally warm sea surface temperatures of about 26.5°C (79.9°F), with the eye becoming better defined and the cloud tops cooling in the eyewall. Ophelia has been able to strengthen over these marginally warm ocean temperatures due to cool upper-level temperatures. Ophelia is likely at or near its peak intensity, as it is expected to move over slightly cooler waters (below 26°C/78.8°F) on Friday. However, some slight additional intensification cannot be ruled out, though it appears unlikely that Ophelia will intensify into a Category 3 major hurricane. Ophelia is expected to continue moving east-northeast through Saturday, when it is expected to pass just southeast of the Azores as a hurricane. Since Ophelia is not directly expected to pass over the island, no watches or warnings have been issued for the Azores.

On Sunday, Ophelia is likely to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone as it accelerates to the northeast towards the British Isles. Ophelia is then expected to pass over the British Isles on Monday, with winds near or just below hurricane force. Although Ophelia is not expected to be a tropical cyclone when it impacts the British Isles, it is likely to bring high winds and heavy rainfall to the region.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.