The Atlantic hurricane season may be winding down, but it does not appear to be over yet. This week, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, and some gradual tropical development is possible. The Southwestern Caribbean is an area of the Atlantic basin favored for tropical development by climatology in late October. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within five days.

It remains unclear exactly when and where the low pressure area will form. Predicting the timing and location of late-season Caribbean genesis is very complex. The global models disagree with the development and timing of this system, with the UKMET model showing rapid development into a hurricane by this weekend. The GFS and ECMWF models are weaker and slower with development. Typically, late season Caribbean storms are quickly turned northeast out to sea and then become extratropical fast over the cooler sea surface temperatures of the open Atlantic. It should be noted, however, that even though we are past the peak of hurricane season, many strong Atlantic hurricanes have formed after this date. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Philippe.

I will be back with another post tomorrow on this system.