Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized since yesterday. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 93L was centered near 13.0°N 83.4°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. It should be noted that an ASCAT pass from earlier today suggests that this wind estimate may be generous. 93L is producing widespread, but poorly organized, thunderstorms, both inland Central America and over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to give 93L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. 93L’s future has not become any less uncertain compared to yesterday. On one hand, conditions appear quite favorable for development intensification aside from land interaction. Wind shear is expected to remain below 20 kt for the next four days or so, with a very moist mid-level atmosphere with relative humidity values above 75 percent and very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C (86°F). However, only one of the three reliable global models – the UKMET – predicts significant development of 93L into a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF and GFS models keep 93L a broad low pressure system without ever developing a well-defined center. It is possible that this occurs because both the ECMWF and GFS predict a small tropical cyclone to form over the far eastern Pacific, which would likely lead to a less conducive environment for development over the Northwestern Caribbean. It is likely, though, that both the ECMWF and GFS are experiencing convective feedback issues, and this could be limiting the model’s ability to resolve 93L properly. The NHC does not expect any tropical cyclogenesis over the East Pacific to occur during the next five days.

Even though development into a strong hurricane appears unlikely at this time, residents of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula and South Florida should closely monitor the progress of 93L. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Philippe. If 93L does become Tropical Storm Philippe, 2017 will become the first Atlantic season since 2012 to reach at least the “P” named storm.

I will be back with an update on 93L tomorrow.